The future of Syrian - Jordanian relations
After a long period of cold relations between Syria and Jordan, the leaders of the two neighboring states met in Damascus to open a new page in relations between them.
President Al-Assad extended a hand of reconciliation to the Jordanian leadership, and King Abdullah visited Damascus for a summit opening the way for a new path to relations between the two neighboring Arab states whose population, culture, and history is one, yet whose politics had diverged notably.
Jordan, mired in political squabbles with its Arab neighbors, has geography providing little natural resources and fertile land, a small population that is not homogeneous (hosting a large Palestinian population), and a small economy, resulting in a small military in a very unstable area surrounded by much bigger powers and in giving Jordan its political orientation.
One can do little about population size, or the weather or natural resources, and the management of economy is subject to many complicated factors that are difficult to manage for newly-founded and developing countries without sustained and prolonged efforts that require outside help, something that few countries have been fortunate to have. One also cannot change the history of a country.
That leaves "political squabbling" as the remaining controllable factor that has been most readily at play in shaping the political orientation of Jordan. Jordan, bordered by Syria, Iraq and Israel, has had a difficult task in trying to protect itself from Israel, while having to deal with two much bigger brothers in Syria and Iraq, who as most big brothers, feel a need to be in control. It is not simply a matter of control, as the region's boundaries have been drawn in an artificial way separating people who were one. Also, Syria and Iraq had concerns about Jordan being a front-line state with Israel and what that means for their security as they are in a state of war with Israel.
The political squabbling that resulted from the above factors pushed Jordan to seek outside help to protect itself, and with a very weak and dependent economy, the move was made easier. The phenomenon of "no-compromise" in political squabbling on issues that initially are not very important, develop and grow and push a country into conditions that it would not have chosen had understanding and support been given at a very early stage. It is worth remembering that a country, no matter how small, thinks of itself in the highest regard and expects the same from others.
All the countries in the region are new in their modern form and have been subjected to much more experienced and sophisticated imperialist powers that had governed them, leaving the region in its current condition. But one cannot play victim to history and circumstance forever. People develop and so do countries. And towards that end, the Syrian leadership, in a break with the past and a most far-sighted visionary move extended a hand to the Jordanian leadership to break away from this "pattern of Arab squabbling" that has done so much damage, creating axes between Arab states themselves against other Arab states and groupings. The Syrian leadership hinted at something very profound in stating that it seeks good relations with Jordan and "does not aim to create axes in the region in doing so."
What that meant is that Syria views Jordan and the Jordanians as one family and that it seeks in good faith and on solid grounds to bring about a positive transformation in relations with Jordan that will bring Jordan back home, not by fighting and squabbling, but through understanding the constraints that exist and seeking to positively influence these constraints so as to allow the natural proclivity of the Jordanians and their leadership to have their place among the Arab states. The Jordanians know and feel this fact, and the Jordanian leadership understands that when the citizens' views are not respected, an unstable internal political condition is inevitable. While, the leadership tries to juggle geopolitics to ensure survival, it may miss internal factors that are much more important.
Jordan knows that its future does not lie with Israel. Jordan fears Israel, a country which makes historic and religious claims upon every peace of land it feels like having. As recently as a week ago, Israel's recently departed defense minister on Israel's TV stated publicly when debating his prime minister said that he (Mordechai), had stopped Israel (Netanyahu) from adventurous acts against Jordan. Even shortly before that, Israel had decided that it would not honor its agreement with Jordan on water sharing. Israel said that the reason that it will not give Jordan its share of water (that Jordan desperately and vitally) needs is because of low rainfall this year. Israel changed its mind a month later, saying it will honor the agreement, when it became evident that the Jordanian rapprochement with Syria is possible, scaring Israel into action. And even later, on the day of the Syrian-Jordanian summit, Netanyahu (leaked to the Israeli daily Haaretz ) that he had changed his mind and is considering returning the occupied Golan to Syria. This is the level of concern that Israel has regarding Syrian-Jordanian relations, and that is the modus operandi of Israel.
Israel once again in a very short period of time had shown little regard to the agreements it signs and views them as a mere convenience to be torn down when it can (as it has done with agreements with Jordan, the Palestinians, and Lebanon). Jordan understands that Israel is a real and ever-present danger, and that Israel uses Jordan as a strategic pawn in its aims. Israel has time and again proven that it seeks to create trouble wherever it can as the only means of politics it knows to maintain its strategic goals.
Jordan has used the Israeli card to afford itself some protection and some financing, and along with Israeli prodding had sought to strengthen ties with Turkey, who till recently had strenuous relations with Syria, in order to have additional points of pressure against Syria, and joined policy with the Palestinian government in favor of the Oslo process, which Syria opposes because it broke the Arab ranks.
But Syria's visionary statement of this new policy hints at going beyond the politics of destruction that has so devastated the region. In Lebanon, Syria was in a position to do anything it wanted and chose to strengthen Lebanon and bring stability to it. Syria knows that stability of its bordering countries is extremely important for Syria's own stability. Instability at the borders creates political and economic strains that drain the productive resources of a nation. While Syria, like every Arab state in the past, spoke about "brotherliness," Syria actually started to help its Arab neighbor to grow strong because it knows that this makes it stronger too. Syria in its break with the past relations with Jordan is taking a long-term and difficult path that is characterized by positive action that will make everyone much stronger in the long run. In a region that is used to one nation being unable to be happy unless another is unhappy, this Syrian policy is a visionary policy that Syria, one of the oldest and greatest civilizations on earth, has been able to define by breaking from long-held regional (and international) practices. Syria is bringing rhetoric and action together, a difficult task for any nation to do, even for the most developed countries. But that is what great leadership is about, breaking new ground.
Having said all that, the task ahead is not easy. Jordan, unlike any other Arab state, represents some serious challenges to Arab national security that should be addressed. Jordan is the only Arab state to hold commercial ties with Israel. Israel, with its very advanced economy, aims at using Jordan as a gateway to the Arab states' economic markets for domination A'la the style of the previous segregationalist South Africa, where the Arab states will be consumers of its value-added products that will strategically serve to dismember and control the pivots of the Arab states' economies.
Jordan, due to internal security conditions, poses another problem that we will not expound upon. But Israel's attempt to assassinate Jordanian citizens inside Jordan such as Khaled Mishaal, the political leader of Hamas, hints at some of the problem.
Therefore, we can see that any opening with Jordan will involve some security aspects which can be overcome and will also face more serious concerns about the economic problem of how to make sure that Jordan and the Arab states have open trade without giving a hostile Israel any benefit. Few people have appreciated the amount of pressure Egypt has caused Israel by simply not having allowed Israel economic relations because of Israel's destructive position on the peace process. Israel had counted on the Egyptian market as the central market that will make all the other Arab states' markets fall into place like a domino. Egypt is not given much credit for its policy that has been effective in continuously prodding Israel into less hegemonic political positions. No peace means no trade and no cultural contact. Israel is still at war with and occupies the lands of several Arab states. It brutalizes and bombs Arab states' citizens daily that had there been an International Criminal Court (which Israel opposed the creation of), Israeli leaders would be charged with crimes against humanity. Israel continues to play power politics, make constant threats, is belligerent, is the only holder of weapons of mass destruction in the region, and seeks not to be a good neighbor, when it represents some five and a half citizens amongst 250 million Arab neighbors, but rather, Israel seeks to rule and dominate.
So we see part of the problem and potential solutions.
Jordan is a part of the Arab states, and, importantly, Jordan and Syria are Arab neighbors. No Jordanian accepts what Israel is doing in Lebanon, Palestine or the Golan. No Arab would accept such a treatment had this brutality been against Jordanians. The Jordanian King has shown much wisdom and courage in his steps to assert his Arab orientation, and this orientation for all the above reasons should be made to succeed, as opposing forces are sure to come into play.
Another part of the Syrian-Jordanian summit that was unique was that two neighboring Arab states that have problems have come together, without outside help or intervention, and like mature adults. They sat down to talk about their problems, concerns, and how to solve them. This once again shows leadership that steps up to the challenge and starts working to solve problems directly and openly without letting them fester and continue to get out of hand.
This can also be a motivator for other Arab states to start such meetings with the intent to solve their problems at the highest level. This kind of commitment and hard work must be made to succeed, no matter the difficulty, as the alternative is worse. The people of the region are brothers and sisters in every sense of the word, and one's success does not mean the failure of the other. To the contrary, we should celebrate the success of our friends and help them succeed. This game is not a zero-sum game, but it takes elevated leadership to rise above basic human instincts.
What we find is that in the past politicians have been the problem more than the solution, as they separated people instead of bringing them together. The Syrian and Jordanian leaders have shown courage and wisdom for the benefit of their people, and a large challenge lies ahead of them in execution of these efforts to bring success to the stated goals, but the Syrian and Jordanian leadership are up to the task.