Post-Levy era: a more extreme government

As of Wednesday morning, a new government takes over in Israel. No elections were held. No cabinet reshuffle. The resignation of Foreign Minister David Levy last Sunday, which goes into effect by Tuesday evening, has left only one, Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai, of what had once been a trio of moderate ministers in Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

It is premature to assume how long this government will last, if at all. Netanyahu might have successfully passed the budget test when the Knesset voted on Monday, but his real test is still ahead of him: the second phase redeployment of Israeli troops in the West Bank, which he, at least in theory, promised to carry out, though with a set of preconditions he is demanding of the Palestine government.

Before Levy, it was ex-finance minister Dan Meridor who resigned over differences with Netanyahu. Meridor, Levy and Mordechai were the only three ministers within the Likud coalition who supported the Oslo Accords and consequently supported the implementation of their clauses. With both Levy and Meridor out, it is doubtful that Mordechai can take on his shoulder the weight of implementing the redeployment, certainly not with a number of influential right-wing, hawkish members of the coalition threatening to topple Netanyahu's government should he go ahead with the troop redeployment.

The post-Levy Israeli cabinet is not the same as it was before, though Levy, as a matter of fact, had very little say as far as Israel's foreign policy was concerned. Almost every job that was in theory part of the foreign ministry's responsibility was done by Netanyahu, or alternatively, by one of his top aides. No wonder Levy finally decided to quit. Apart from his concern over the budget distribution and the absence of his major constituencies from the list of money recipients, Levy was disturbed at the fact that his role as foreign minister was marginalized by Netanyahu, especially when it came to holding talks with the Palestinians.

Now Mordechai seems to be following in Levy's footsteps. With his earnest wish to go ahead with the redeployment and to stand by his past promises to honor the agreements, Mordechai might find himself, perhaps within months, obliged to make a choice between his portfolio and his commitments. Netanyahu, under the pressure of the dominant extreme right, will try to postpone, if not cancel, the redeployment and Mordechai, as such, may have to go home.

Currently, both the Third Way and the ultra-orthodox religious Shas parties support the redeployment and even threaten that without the redeployment, they might pull out of the government. On the other hand, other coalition members like Tsomet of Rafael Eitan and Moledet of Rehvaam Zeevi threaten that if Netanyahu decides to implement the second redeployment, they will bring his government down. The only savior that Netanyahu might have to rely on, ironically enough, is the opposition Labor Party, which has so far failed to give a crystal-clear answer to whether its members will vote for Netanyahu if he goes ahead or whether they would let him fall, even if the reason is his commitment to the Oslo Accords.

Over the past weeks, discussions took place within the Labor Party on whether they should provide Netanyahu with a so-called security net that prevents the fall of his government once redeployment is brought for a vote in the Knesset. Many argued that the party should find a way out of this dilemma without harming its image as an advocate of peace with the Palestinian government and the Arab countries. But very recently, the party seems to have taken its decision: to bring Netanyahu down no matter what means or price are involved.

Netanyahu himself told reporters after the Knesset vote on the budget that he is convinced he will be able to get the government to carry out the second phase withdrawal, just as he forged a majority for the authorization of the budget. “It will be hard, but I am sure that I will be able to persuade members of the coalition about the necessity of the decision,” he said.

With this illustration of self-confidence, Netanyahu met with US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Dennis Ross, who arrived in Israel Tuesday afternoon for a series of meetings with Netanyahu and with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Netanyahu, Israeli sources said, is aware of the fact that Ross is trying to gauge the chances that the present coalition under the present circumstances can carry out the Oslo Accords' commitments. Israeli papers reported Tuesday that in the 48 hours preceding Ross's arrival, senior US officials spoke over the phone with various Israeli officials, and tried to examine the chances of Netanyahu's political survival after Levy's resignation.

The Ross-Netanyahu talks took place amid speculations even from within the cabinet that it will not survive for long. With the support of only 63 Knesset members, Justice Minister Tzahi Hanegbi said, the government may not have good chances to survive. “This is the last supper. It must be said truthfully: If Levy doesn’t come back, this government has no chance of lasting,” Hanegbi, who is very close to Netanyahu, told the Likud faction meeting on Monday.