Netanyahu's government is falling

For the Israeli prime minister, the results of Monday’s Knesset vote on the budget that he won did not really matter. Benjamin Netanyahu knows very well his government is falling down but his hope was mainly to have it lose the Knesset confidence for reasons pertinent to the peace process and not on issues related to domestic debates like unemployment and lack of promising and booming economy.

"If you need to bring my government down, do it on the question of redeployment in the West Bank but not because of the budget," Netanyahu told some of his coalition partners who threatened in the past they would not vote for the 1998 budget. According to ultra-orthodox Shas Party leader, Arieh Der'i, Netanyahu had already taken his decision to carry out the second phase of redeployment in the West Bank. Speaking on state-run Television on Monday, hours before the vote, Der'i avoided going into details of the percentage by which Israeli troops will be redeployed but said that the pace of this redeployment has been agreed upon with the US Administration.

Outgoing foreign minister, David Levy, who projected himself as moderate minister in the present government, has aired endless criticism against Netanyahu "who has failed to move the peace process forward." But understood quite a long time ago that his chances of competing with Netanyahu in the political field are slim and therefore he decided to embark on the economic aspect of his battle. Since it would not be appropriate for Levy to voice hawkish views to win hearts of the right, it is much easier for him to combat Netanyahu on budgetary issues, where at least Netanyahu will be incapable of recruiting supporters from within the development towns, the most affected by unemployment.

Throughout the marathon talks Netanyahu conducted with coalition members immediately after Levy aired his threats to resign late last week, it was obvious for the prime minister that he has lost the confidence of many of his ministers. In a meeting Likud ministers held Sunday night, Netanyahu came under fire from almost every minister, each criticizing a certain aspect of the way Netanyahu handled the country over the past 18 months of his tenure. Communications Minister Limor Livnat said that Netanyahu marginalized the ministers. Tourism Minister Moshe Katzav expressed disappointment that Netanyahu did not consult the ministers concerning the budget. Infrastructure Minister Ariel Sharon said that many mistakes were made in the leading of the government and that lessons must be learned. West Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert attended the meeting and strongly attacked Netanyahu saying that the government is not adequately supporting Jewish settlement plans in East Jerusalem and blamed Netanyahu for the slow pace by which construction works are taking place at the site of the new Jewish settlement of Har Homa on Jabal Abu Ghaneim in East Jerusalem.

While some of the ministers suggested to postpone the Knesset vote on the budget, Netanyahu insisted on going ahead and said he had a feeling that the budget would pass. Netanyahu, observers believe, did not want to be drawn to a new election campaign and would like, instead, to start this campaign with his own agenda: redeployment and not economy. Netanyahu, it so seems, wants to create an atmosphere of “business as usual,” and tries to buy time until he is able to choose a time for elections suitable for him. Meanwhile, he will make every effort in order to divert public attention on the political issue and the second phase of redeployment. But it took an effort for Netanyahu to prove that "business is as usual". When he entered the press conference room on Sunday night to comment on Levy's resignation, he tried to put on an expression of self confidence, but the television cameras showed Netanyahu's fingers tapping away nervously.

Hours before the budget vote, the Labor faction in the Knesset met and implicitly admitted that the party is not ready for early elections in the coming few months. The most preferred date for early elections, the Labor Party believes, is November. Until then, Barak hopes to recruit more supporters from within the so-called Netanyahu-disappointed constituencies. The party, meanwhile, believes that any talk on a possible national unity government would only torpedo their chances to prepare themselves for the upcoming round. But some members hinted they would be ready to go for a national unity government provided it is formed only with the Likud and without Netanyahu, a condition Likud can never accept.

It is quite certain, therefore, that early elections will be held in Israel no later than November 1998. Opposition Party leader Ehud Barak already anticipated early elections in a number of statements he made late last year. No one can tell if Barak and Levy had, in one way or another, cut a deal between them by which Levy might serve as foreign minister in a future Labor government, but Levy, in his press conference on Sunday categorically denied a deal was ever cut. Israeli politics, however, have shown in the past that categorical denials are not always true.