A study by the ministry of agriculture on the future of citrus agriculture
A study prepared by the policy analysis center at the Syrian Ministry of Agriculture stressed that there are two hypotheses regarding citrus production, the more optimistic of which stresses a decrease in the rate of production from 5.4 to 2.5% for the period extending between 1999 and 2010. This is if all the trees are replaced after their death.
The more pessimistic hypothesis said the rate of production increase will decrease from 3.5 to 2% for the same period.
If the juice factory in Lattakia is operating, expectations indicate that the production will be hardly enough to meet local consumption for the coming decades. Therefore the question which presents itself to the decision-makers in Syria is whether measures should be taken to increase production with the objective of making Syria a main exporter of citrus.
Local processing of citrus: There are two factories for processing citrus in Lattakia and Homs. They produce frozen concentrates at a production capacity of 6,000 tons per year, while local consumption of this item is less than 300, with the possibility of increasing consumption by five fold (to 1,500 tons), still there will be 4,500 tons of concentrates that should be exported to foreign markets which are controlled (in the area of citrus) by Brazil.
Processing means converting fresh citrus of high nutritional value into juice concentrates of lower value, and therefore there is no economic feasibility behind establishing other factories to process citrus concentrates. This is for several reasons, including: Local production of citrus concentrates exceeds the needs of local current and future consumption in the near future; citrus production in Syria hardly meets local consumption needs; and there are difficulties in competing in foreign markets due to the increase in production costs and instability in the volume of citrus production.
However the main venue for exporting Syria's citrus is the Arab Gulf states. Europe's markets will be of higher shipping costs in comparison to the Gulf states, due to the change in exchange rates and losses resulting from robbery.
This report is based on a study that was prepared by 11 persons at the Ministry of Agriculture: the director of the agricultural affairs, the chairman of the citrus council, the FAO's national advisor in Syria and seven trainees at the Ministry of Agriculture.