Deep differences US leave Netanyahu with one option: early elections

President Bill Clinton told the press after his Tuesday morning three way meeting with President Arafat and Premier Netanyahu that "I achieved what I came here to achieve."

But one of the achievements that President Clinton did not mention in his statement was the fact that he has already pushed the button for a countdown to Netanyahu's government. The enormous effort that President Clinton has put to avoid another setback to the peace process has put Netanyahu in a position where the only choice left for him is to call for early elections.

Netanyahu today is trapped under a heavy pressure from more than one direction. His extreme right wing coalition partners want him to cancel the Wye River Agreements. Other partners, less hawkish though, want him to go ahead with the agreement but with another set of conditions that the PNA may or may not accept. The opposition Labor Party is not so keen on serving Netanyahu with another safety net in return for the implementation of the Wye Accords. Labor officials have reportedly concluded that Netanyahu, while not having a problem in signing agreements, his major problem is his unwillingness to implement them. The only way out Netanyahu may have is to call for early elections and project himself as a man of peace whose only problem with implementing the peace accords with the Palestinians was his lack of enough parliamentary power.

The upcoming scenario for next Monday, when the Knesset votes on a no-confidence motion, is for Netanyahu to stand up and declare that he and his government support calling for early elections. He simply wants to take the initiative into his own hands. The general feeling among Israelis, in the words of Haaretz commentator Yoel Marcus, is that Netanyahu and his government "are going to fall, sooner or later and that early elections are practically inevitable.

Netanyahu could not wait until after the PNC session was over to release his reaction. Right after the voting on the cancellation of the Palestinian charter, Netanyahu's office released a statement saying the premier was satisfied. However, an hour later, after President Clinton delivered his speech, Netanyahu was furious. He called US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Monday night to tell her that Arafat "should have canceled the covenant five years ago, I have no intention of granting him a prize for that." Before talking to Albright, Netanyahu convened his closest ministers, the so-called kitchen cabinet, to decide on the position they would take in the meeting with Clinton and Arafat. Albright made it clear to him that the US President expected Israel to meet the Palestinians half way. Netanyahu was angry and he reportedly told Albright that the Palestinians "do not deserve a prize. They did what they were obligated to do."

Netanyahu was angered by the comparison made by Clinton in his speech in Gaza, between children of Palestinian prisoners and children of Israelis killed in Palestinian attacks. He reportedly yelled at Albright on the phone: "How can you compare between a child of a murderer sitting in jail and a child whose father was murdered and will never be able to see him again. You are asking us to release prisoners with blood on their hands. Are you willing to release the terrorists who carried out the attack on the Twin Towers in New York?"

The serious crisis between Israel and the US erupted immediately after the festive day in which the PNC in Gaza on Monday when US President toured the city and attended the PNC session. After the annulment of the national charter, US officials said that Israel should fulfill its part of the agreement. Albright reportedly told Netanyahu that the US expected Israel to start the upcoming stage of troops withdrawal as scheduled, on Friday 18 December. Netanyahu, so far, has no intention of carrying out any further withdrawals, arguing that the Palestinians still have a number of commitments that they have not met as yet.

President Clinton angered Israel in a number of statements he made during his speech in Gaza. It was not only his equation of children of both sides but also a set of other announcements which were seen in Israel as a new US strategy that goes far beyond supporting the fundamental rights of the Palestinians. Israeli officials, in behind the scenes evaluation of the Clinton visit, said the US seems to be heading towards adopting a new strategy in the Middle East in which a Palestinian state would play a major role. Some even said that the US Administration wanted to have a new Palestinian state to exist in order to balance US policy in the region and to appease the Arab world.

When President Clinton spoke of the right of the Palestinians "to decide their fate in their land" that was, in Israeli eyes, tantamount to recognition of their right to set a state of their own in Palestine. The reference to the Palestinian right in the context of the visit itself was a clear support and even legitimization of their right to statehood. Such a stand might well affect the talks on the final status of the Palestinian territories once the two sides decide to go ahead with those negotiations.

Another remark that angered the Israeli officials was President Clinton's appeal to the PNC members after the vote saying that in their vote they had no connection with the Israeli government itself but with the Israeli public as a whole. Many in Israel saw in that statement an attempt by the president to indicate as if the Israeli government does not represent the Israelis. "It is very unfortunate that President Clinton ignores the elected government of a democratic state, and urges appealing directly to the people of Israel, circumventing the government. This is a blow to the legality of the government," Israelis sources said on Monday night.

The three-way summit ended almost with no positive results. In the Middle East, many believe that if you want to kill a crisis as opposed to admit its existence, refer it to a committee. Two committees were formed as a result of the three-way summit between Presidents Clinton and Arafat and the Israeli prime minister. One committee will review the question of Palestinian prisoners and to draw new definition to the prisoners whom Israel describe as having Jewish blood on their hands. Another committee will be in charge of reviewing the rest of the outstanding issues that were agreed upon in the Wye River Agreement. President Clinton told reporters after the meeting near Gaza on Tuesday morning that he somehow feels satisfied with the results but said that "it would be unfortunate" if delays occur in the Israeli timetable for a further withdrawal in the West Bank,

Israeli sources confirmed that intensive discussions continued throughout the night prior to the meeting near Gaza. Foreign minister Ariel Sharon was afraid that President Clinton was trying to lay a "trap" for the Israelis, and that undue demands would be made of Netanyahu should he attend the summit. The Israeli side was worried because of the US proposal that only President Clinton speaks to the press after the meeting. They were worried that President Clinton would deliver a number of statement that would imply that there is some kind of a US dictation on Israel. Netanyahu insisted to hold a press conference right after the meeting regardless of what the results were. He wanted to avoid a situation in which President Clinton would tell him what to do in the next few days or weeks.

Reactions: The Palestinian side was euphoric of the event. For them it was a historic day with historical implications and consequences. But in Israel, the views were split, characterizing the Israelis society itself. Maariv daily's political analyst Hemi Shalev presented President Clinton as the Palestinians' Lord Balfour. He wrote on Tuesday that President Clinton's visit turned the PNA "into a state in the making." Yediot Ahronot's political analyst Nahum Barnea played up the quick American recognition of the Palestinian state, which, he said, "received its graduation diploma before its birth certificate was even issued." The paper also published a cartoon portrayed Clinton as Prophet Moses, giving equal weight to both sides, and bearing two tablets of the Ten Commandments: one side says Jews, the other Arabs.

Israel had to wait 12 years before an American President agreed to meet its prime minister, and that meeting was not even held in the White House. Israel waited 26 years for a visit by an American president. "Begin, at Camp David, promised the Palestinians governmental rights. Rabin, at Oslo, gave them territory. Netanyahu, in his insisting on the Gaza ceremony, provided them with the only possible patron in the world. For better or for worse, that is Israel's role in paving the way for the Palestinian state," wrote Barnea in his analysis.

One of the harsh criticism of Netanyahu was voiced by Labor Party member Shlomo Ben Ami who wrote in Maariv on Tuesday that in Gaza "a Palestinian state was founded under the patronage of the United States. It is not a tragedy, because there is not and never was a solution to the conflict without the establishment of a Palestinian state. The error here is that the state is being founded thanks to an American president and not under the direction of the government of Israel and as a result the Palestinians do not have a sense of debt towards Israel or a commitment to true cooperation with it." "The result," he added, "is that Netanyahu is creating a Palestinian state as a hostile state instead of contributing to the establishment of a friendly state. How sad and how damaging that a politician with initiative and a man with well-defined plans for peace does not head the government of Israel. Instead, a politically manipulative man who rides the waves of events with no direction and no compass."

Israeli president Ezer Weizman praised the PNC session and said that Israel should continue with the peace process. "We must thank the president of the United States for coming here in a difficult period for him, to take an active part in bringing the sides together and making peace. Arafat gave a gift to Clinton and to the American people. I do not know if we will need to call on him again, but if we need to, we will."

Defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai welcomed the authorization process of Chairman Arafat's letter to President Clinton in Gaza. "This is an important and necessary step in fulfilling the Palestinians' basic obligations, from the agreements with Israel and in particular from the Wye accord. Now Israel expects the Palestinians to undertake the rest of their obligations, in order to move toward to a better future."

Labor party chairman Ehud Barak said the PNC session was a step in the right direction. "We must immediately begin the process of building trust between the sides in order to make the mutual implementation of the Wye accord possible. I hope that Prime Minister Netanyahu will not, for the sake of survival, find a way to block the continuation of the process that must be continued and moved forward."

Labor party member Uzi Baram said Israel should see the hope and faith and not fear or worry describing what happened in Gaza as being "a great day for Palestinians and an important day for Israelis."

Knesset member Michael Kleiner, head of the Force-17 ultra right wing Knesset bloc that threatened to topple Netanyahu's government said what happened in Gaza "was a farce that will be remembered as a disgrace to the world, with the support of President Clinton. The fact that Netanyahu is buying this fraud emphasizes that he can not be prime minister." Kleiner is seen in Israel as the key figure in the current politics because of his ultimatum to Netanyahu. Many even explained Netanyahu's hawkish remarks throughout the Clinton visit by saying that when the Israeli premier was addressing President Clinton, he was in fact talking to Kleiner appealing for his aide.

Another right wing hard liner, Benny Begin of the Likud said that whoever thought the Palestinian charter was canceled was "deceiving himself. "We must remember the principle: two weeks ago the government turned over 400 sq. km in the West Bank to evil people from the PLO-Hamas gangs, and the withdrawal continues."

A third right wing extremist, Knesset member Rahvaam Zeevi who calls for the deportation of all Palestinians out of Palestine into the Arab world said that "Netanyahu's agreement to see the circus that was held in Gaza as a satisfactory vote to cancel the covenant, demonstrates the final bankruptcy, senselessness and loss of direction of Netanyahu."