Blair starts talks in Israel, Palestine: curtain raiser

Expectations are not very high among Palestinians for the upcoming visit of British Prime Minister Tony Blair to Israel which starts on Sunday afternoon and his meeting on Monday with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat in Gaza.

"Blair is arriving with the historical credit he obtained following the agreement he brokered between Ireland and Britain, but he might fail in the Middle East in what he succeeded back in Dublin," said one Palestinian observer who was asked to comment on Blair's visit to the Middle East.

Unlike his foreign secretary, Robin Cook, Prime Minister Blair will not miss a free dinner with his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu. Cook had angered the Israelis when he met at Jabal Abu Ghaneim with Salah Ta'mari, member of the Palestinian Legislative Council. He wanted to make a point that his country is opposed to Israel's settlement policy. His point was taken, but differently. Netanyahu canceled a dinner with him and the visit ended with what Israeli officials described as fiasco.

Blair has accepted an Israeli request to visit Yad Vashem, the Holocaust memorial site in West Jerusalem. As a matter of fact, his visit to the site will be the first activity on his agenda. His entourage will head directly from the airport to Yad Vashem on Mount of Herzl. Cook at the time refused to visit the site. Instead, he opted to visit a monument the Palestinians set up in East Jerusalem in remembrance of Palestinian victims of Deir Yassin massacre in 1948.

That Blair is arriving in the region exactly during Israel's celebrations of its 50th anniversary is remarkable in itself to some Palestinians who have called on Blair to apologies for the historical responsibility his country bears for the Palestinian tragedy.

Blair, one person said, has felt reponsibility to "kiss-and-make-up for offense" his foreign ministers did by visiting Jabal Abu Ghaneim settlement, where after this incident, in London, the Board of Jewish Deputies in March who had invited Cook to be the keynote speaker, only to cancel his invitation later.

Blair has arrived in the region with a mandate from the 15-nation European Union, of which he holds the current presidency, and the blessing of US President Bill Clinton, with whom he has developed a close relationship both on the personal and political levels. In his talks, he will focus on prospects for de-freezing the peace process but not very much success is expected out of talks. His chances of meeting a listening Netanyahu are slim and therefore, the main theme of his talks is expected to focus on the implementation of some of the outstanding clauses of the interim agreements between Israel and the Palestinians.

Palestinian sources said that in his talks, Blair is not likely to present the long-awaited European peace initiative which was almost imminent during Cook's visit three months ago. But it was frozen in favor of a US peace initiative that the Clinton Administration chose not to unveil, out of concern that it might embarrass the Israeli government. The agenda of talks Blair will hold with Netanyahu and Arafat includes items such as the industrial zone in the crossing point between Gaza and Israel and the opening of the safe passage for Palestinians between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Blair is expected to endorse Netanyahu's proposal from two weeks ago in which he suggested that Britain combine its technical know-how with European funding to build a safe passage tunnel or overpass for the Palestinians. The British Canal that connects France with England might become the example for what Britain and the EU in general may build. But that is expected to take a long time and does not add up to efforts made by the international community to save the ailing peace process. "It simply means that the clause on safe passage between the two parts of the PNA will remain frozen as long as the proposed tunnel is not ready and that is something I do not think a single Palestinian would be ready to accept," said the Palestinian observer.

Israeli sources, meanwhile, believe that Blair is very careful not to repeat what they call the "stupid" behavior of his foreign secretary, but that does not mean he won't be tough in his talks, not only with Prime Minister Netanyahu but also with President Arafat. In an interview with the Arabic-language daily Al Hayat in London a few days ago, Blair called on both sides to adhere to their agreements. "The key principles are that all sides should adhere fully and unconditionally to the commitments they have made and that they should approach the negotiating process in a spirit of good faith and mutual respect," he said.

Heading Blair's agenda of talks will be issues agreed upon in the interim agreements but which are as yet unimplemented. Those include security arrangements, the removal of Israeli obstacles to Palestinian economic development, further Israeli army redeployment in the West Bank, a settlement freeze, the opening of Gaza airport and the industrial zone in Gaza, and the creation of safe passage routes for the Palestinians between Gaza and the West Bank.

"For the Palestinians," said Blair in the interview, "that means, in particular, maximum and sustained effort in combating terrorism." With the latest Palestinian crackdown on Hamas activists, and mainly members of its military wing, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have great difficulty in convincing his British guest that the Palestinain government still needs to do more in the sphere of security. Even Israeli military intelligence chief, Major General Moshe Ya'alon admits that the Palestinian government has sent a red light to Hamas suicide bombing attacks.

Therefore, the feeling in Israel is that Blair will try to exert some pressure on Netanyahu and simultaneously will try to obtain from President Arafat a stronger commitment on behalf of the Palestinain government to continue its crackdown on the Islamic movements.