US: Iran approaches point of no-return on acquiring a nuclear program

Iran is approaching the "point of no-return" in acquiring the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, a prospect that presents an intolerable strategic threat to the United States and the international community, according to Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph.

Briefing reporters in Washington April 21, Joseph said that Iran's announcement that it is operating a uranium enrichment process consisting of a cascade of 164 centrifuges indicates that it is well on its way to an industrial-scale capability for the production of enriched uranium.

Joseph defined point of no return as the point when "Iran has acquired the confidence and the capability of running centrifuges over a sustained period of time, allowing it to produce enriched uranium."

"[W]e are very close to that point of no return. And I think that's a view that was shared -- that is shared by many others," Joseph said.

The under secretary said that if Iran's claims are to be believed, it has converted enough uranium for 110 tons of UF6, the radioactive material that is fed into the centrifuges -- enough material for more than 10 weapons. He added that if Iran has produced enriched uranium with 3.5 percent U-235, then it is well on its way "to producing enriched uranium at a much higher content, including weapons grade material."

Uranium, when mined, contains a mix of atoms with different numbers of neurons and electrons. Enriching uranium increases the amount of middle-weight (U-235) and light-weight (U-234) uranium atoms, which make up less than 1 percent of natural uranium. The fuel for nuclear reactors needs a higher concentration of U-235 than exists in natural ore, ideally 5 percent.

Joseph said that if Iran realizes its intention to have 3,000 centrifuges installed at Natanz by the end of 2006, then, if properly configured, those centrifuges will be able to produce enough fissile material for more than one nuclear weapon a year. He added that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is reported to have claimed that Iran is moving ahead with research and development of the next generation P2 centrifuge, which according to Iranian claims is four times as efficient as the P1 in creating enriched uranium.

The under secretary said Iran's nuclear activities must be seen within the context of its unwillingness to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. He added that Iran must be stopped from acquiring a heavy water research reactor that would be configured to produce plutonium, the other fissile material that is appropriate for nuclear weapons.

Joseph said that Iran "likely is the greatest strategic threat" facing the United States and the international community.

"A nuclear-armed Iran is something that we simply cannot tolerate," Joseph said. An Iran with nuclear weapons would undermine the nuclear proliferation regime and the stability of the region because it would be emboldened to take more aggressive actions through the use of terrorism and other means, he said.

"We need to use every tool at our disposal. Diplomacy is the key. Our economic tools, our intelligence tools, every tool that we have needs to be brought to bear against this threat," he said.

Joseph recently visited Iran's neighbors, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in addition to Egypt, for discussions about how to handle the threat from Iran. The consultations dealt with working together within the context of the Proliferation Security Initiative, which involves more than 70 countries working together to stop trade in proliferation materials, he said.

He said they also talked about possible financial measures to disrupt proliferation activities, such as monitoring bank transactions and closing front companies engaged in the purchase of nuclear materials and expertise. Joseph said he and officials from Gulf countries also discussed the possibilities for collaboration in a defense against Iranian missiles and training and exercises in the area of chemical and biological weapons defense.

Briefing reporters alongside Joseph was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns who talked about the diplomatic efforts to deal with Iran. In recent meetings with officials from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and from the Group of Eight (G8) countries (Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia), Burns said he found unanimous agreement on the need to counter Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.

"Each country said that we all ought to act now collectively to ensure that we speak with one voice and take one series of actions designed to isolate the Iranians, and if necessary to think about punitive, diplomatic, economic measures for Iran to stop its current efforts," Burns said.

Burns said that the UN Security Council will be the primary, but not exclusive, forum where the international community will try to bring pressure to bear on Iran. He said that the United States is "devoted and dedicated" to making the Security Council process effective, but it is not willing to let the issue get "hung up for months or years" in the council.

"It's not beyond the realm of the possible that at some point in the future a group of countries could get together, if the Security Council is unable to act, to take collective economic action or collective action on sanctions," he said.

US Deportment Of State spokesman was asked "it kind of suggests to that maybe you're not that confident you'll get what you want at the UN and you've got to open a new front. Am I on the wrong track here?"

Sean McCormack said "I think what you're seeing is just the reality of international politics. We are committed to pursuing the UN Security Council front. We're devoting quite a bit of energy to that and I would expect in the coming days and weeks, we'll talk more about that. Certainly in the wake of the April 28th IAEA report regarding Iran's nuclear activities, we are going to be looking at what specific steps the Security Council can take. But certainly, in parallel to that, you are going to have these discussions about what individual countries might do, what groups of countries might do collectively in the case that the Security Council does not find it within itself to act. Whether that's passing a resolution, a Chapter 7 resolution, or passing other measures regarding asset freezes or sanctions or travel restrictions or other measures that may be discussed. So they're not mutually exclusive, Barry. Certainly, we're pursuing the Security Council track, but that does not preclude also preliminary discussions about what other possibilities are."