Al-Assad's trip to Moscow and potential implications
Syria-Russia, Analysis, 7/5/1999

Syrian President Hafez al-Assad heads today for Moscow in his first visit there since 1991 and his 14th such visit during his long presidency.

Observers have described this visit as a main turning point on the level of Syrian-Russian relations, and in regard to the general political and strategic situation in the Middle East.

Al-Assad's visit to Russia was scheduled to be held in September 1998, but it was postponed then due to the reported political and economic crisis which hit Russia. Events coincided with the resignation of the former government and President Yeltsin's admission to the hospital.

President al-Assad's visit to Moscow was set to be made in the spring of 1999, but it was again postponed at the last moment because it coincided with the visit of the Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon to Moscow.

The Syrian side might have felt upset because of such coincidence (whether made intentionally or not), but there was always a Syrian desire not to convert these feelings into a diplomatic crisis threatening the course of Syrian-Russian relations. Observers say that the top priority in the course of rebuilding bilateral relations has from the very beginning been centered on resuming and strengthening military cooperation with Syria's drastic needs, at the present time to renovate its armed forces and provide it with new systems and equipment, an operation which had halted since the beginning of the 1990s with the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

Signing new armament contracts between Damascus and Moscow has been always hindered by the inability of the two sides to reach an acceptable settlement for the arising conflict since years on the question of military debts Syria has had to pay since the Soviet Union era, estimated at between US $12 and $14 billion, according to the Russian calculations.

The Syrian position is that this estimation of this sum is very exaggerated, on the ground that great part of the military shipments from the former Soviet Union to Syria were in the form of donations for free or at lower prices as were falling in the course of the military and strategic alliance linking the two countries.

A settlement for this controversy has been on the horizon as Tehran took part in bringing viewpoints together between the two countries on this matter. Reports said that Russia approved to reduce the debts to almost US $2 billion, and Tehran was said to guarantee the implementation of this matter. Other sources spoke about Saudi consent to finance part of the costs resulting from the debts.

The two countries' position toward the question of debts took a more positive inclination when Western and Israeli defense sources revealed a Russian-Syrian agreement made to provide the Syrian forces with AT8 anti-armored-vehicle Cornith missiles. This was also followed by the visit made by the Russian defense minister at the end of 1998 to Damascus and his announcement that his country is ready to meet all Syrian defense requirements.

It has become evident that the new cooperation program includes providing Syria with C 300 and Sam 101 anti aircraft and missile systems which are considered a competitor to the US patriot missiles and Russian T-80 tanks.

Observers expect that a great deal of the cooperation program between Syria and Russia will concentrate on Moscow's renovation of Syrian-owned Russian weapons and military equipment, especially the improvement of MiG 29 jets, converting them into MiG 29 SMT. Syria, the observers say, also seeks to renovate its MiG 32, MiG 21, Sukhai 22 jets and T 72 tanks. Should all these happen during the visit of President al-Assad to Moscow, it will bring back Russian-Syrian relations to their golden age, as had been the case previously during the days of the former Soviet Union thus giving the visit a strong impact on the future map of regional and international alliances in the area.

Previous Stories:
  Al-Assad in Moscow on Monday   (7/3/1999)
  Al-Assad expected in Moscow on Monday   (7/2/1999)
  Contacts on president al-Assad's visit to Moscow   (6/2/1999)
  Syrian - Russian agreement on peaceful use of nuclear energy   (5/20/1999)

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