Iranian missile test worries Israel
Regional-Iran, Military, 7/24/1998

Israel and the US have reportedly been in constant contact to share information and assessment following Iran's successful missile launch test two days ago.

Israeli officials expressed worries that Iran's missile power would pose a threat to Israel but expressed belief that the new missile has not entered the operational phase. American experts too believe it would take Iran a few more tests over the coming several months to make its new missile, Shihab-3, operational.

In statements made to the press after the Iranian test, President Bill Clinton and the State Department spokesman referred to the potential threat the missile poses to Middle East stability and to the possibility of it being capable of hitting targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia.

Israeli sources on Friday quoted US intelligence reports as saying that Shihab-3 test was not fully successful and sited technical problems. US intelligence experts believe that in the next few weeks Iran will be carrying out more tests with this model, which can strike a target up to 1,300 km away. The new version, Shihab-4 is expected to be capable of hitting any target in Israel

"Just the fact that the Iranian missile test was carried out is serious. This is a severe threat to the Middle East, which could threaten Israel," Israeli defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai reacted. He said his army would need "more resources, a bigger budget, more deterring capabilities and motivation, and if necessary we'll do everything we can to protect the security of the state," he said. He blamed Russia for extending support to Iran and said that the US and other countries "are doing everything they can to stop the support Iran gets from various parties, mainly from Russia."

"If the international efforts to stop Russia from assisting Iran fail, Teheran will complete the project within two years, and will begin a mass-production line of missiles," a senior military source in Israel said on Thursday night. The source argued that though the Shihab-3 is based on the North Korean missile Nu-dong, it could not have been accomplished without the Russian technology and know-how. But a senior government official said the fact that Iran had already tested its missile was meant to convince the West and Israel that there is no point in attempting to pressure Russia to cease its support for Iran. "They wanted to signal to the whole world that the missile is there and that any pressure on Russia in this context would prove to be futile and useless," the source said.

A defense ministry source added that Iran had wanted to demonstrate the fact that it has completed the first stage development of the missile. But US and Israeli officials were quoted as saying that they were not deterred by the test and that they would continue their attempts to pressure Russia.

With Israel's mounting economic difficulties and rising rate of unemployment, Mordechai has had a major problem in obtaining the budget he hoped for away from the limitations imposed by the minister of finance. Yet he stressed that the military establishment in Israel needs to utilize more financial resources in order to do all that is needed to protect Israel.

The timing of the test-launch surprised both US and Israeli intelligence experts since none had expected it to take place before months from today. It also came to portray how poor the US intelligence-gathering process has become, a matter that was amply illustrated in the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests two months ago. Both had at the time surprised the West with their nuclear tests.

It is not clear yet for Israeli officials whether the missile was shipped in whole from North Korea or whether it was a self-made Iranian missile. Should the Iranians prove they were the ones who built the missile, Iran can then be considered to be essentially self-sufficient in this regard.

Over the past few years, Israel has focused its diplomatic efforts on the Iranian-Russian connection and less on the Iranian-Korean track of cooperation. Israel even played down the significance of the Shihab-3 missile. During the visit to South Korea last summer by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli officials said the North Korean Nu-Dong missile did not pose any threat to Israel.

According to Haaretz Hebrew daily on Friday, the Foreign Ministry director-general Eitan Ben Tzur visited North Korea in 1992 and proposed that Israel essentially buy out the North Korean missile program before the missiles were sold to Iran. The idea was overruled by then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Last week, Mordechai held what was described as a serious, difficult and frank meeting with Russian security experts concerning Moscow's role in the transfer of missile know-how and nuclear technology to Iran. It was Mordechai too who last November met with US Secretary of Defense William Cohen in Washington and gave him a detailed survey of Iran's development program.

Previous Stories:
  Iran launches medium-range missile test   (7/23/1998)
  Iran voices strong support for Arab states against Israeli aggression   (7/13/1998)
  Probability of war next year higher than in the past   (7/13/1998)

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