No progress in Palestine-Israel talks, political reshuffle in Israel expected
Palestine-Israel, Politics, 7/22/1998

Palestinian officials expressed disappointment at the present pace of talks with their Israeli counterparts and insisted there hasn't been any breakthrough in contacts they have held since last Sunday meeting between PLO Executive Committee member Abu Mazen and Israeli defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai.

Official sources in Gaza said Israel made no serious proposals over the past few days and instead embarked on repeating the old proposals that had already been rejected by the Palestinians at the time. But in order not to be blamed for the breakdown in talks, Palestinian negotiators said they would continue meeting their Israeli counterparts till the end of Wednesday, the day that forms the end of the US ultimatum to the two sides to try and negotiate directly their differences.

Israel, Palestinian officials stressed, has refused to discuss the US ideas that Washington presented some six months ago and tried to impose a new agenda on the last few days meetings. President Yasser Arafat who returned from Cairo after a brief meeting with President Hosni Mubarak told reporters that the meetings with the Israelis "did not achieve any substantial results that can give hope to improve the situation." "On the contrary, the Israelis are still repeating the previous statements." Arafat's advisor Nabil Abu Rudeineh described the Israeli proposals as not bringing anything new, which proves that Israelis still reject the US initiative. Abu Rudeineh said the Palestinian government would report to the US on the outcome of the meetings by the end of Wednesday. Colonel Mohammed Dahlan, head of the preventive security in the Gaza Strip and a participant in the talks with the Israelis, confirmed that no progress was achieved at all. He said the Israelis brought up new ideas and tried to evade from the US initiative.

Meanwhile, Israel seemed to be on the verge of a political volcano with intensive consultations among most of the Knesset factions. Prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu gave an interview to Israel's Channel One television on Tuesday night in which he confirmed his intention to carry out the second phase redeployment of his troops in the West Bank if the Palestinians accepted his conditions. But the general assessment is that Netanyahu is neither willing nor capable of implementing the withdrawal because of the tough opposition he is facing within the cabinet and the Knesset as well. Threats of resignation from the government and of toppling the government were issued from all directions and Netanyahu found that the only thing he could do is wait until the Knesset summer recess starts next Thursday. Until the end of this recess in mid-October, Netanyahu believes he will have a quiet break to think of his future steps.

Amid calls to bring down his government either ways, Netanyahu may finally decide to go ahead with the redeployment of his troops and thus portray himself as a peacemaker. At the moment he enjoys the support of part of his Likud Party, of the Third Way coalition members and of at least 15 opposition Labor Party members who have advocated supporting Netanyahu with a safety net that would prevent his fall. Former party leader Shimon Peres and some of his close supporters side with a safety net to Netanyahu. This issue was seemingly one of the issues Peres raised in his meeting with President Arafat in Gaza on Wednesday. Leading members of the Labor have evaluated a probability in which they might have to join Netanyahu, either in a format of a national unity government or in the shape of support from the outside.

Who is threatening what? The Third Way announced that it would decide on its next moves only next week, but the position it has secretly agreed upon is that if Netanyahu did not decide on a withdrawal by next week, the party would leave the government and call for the dissolution of the Knesset. Party leader Avigdor Kahalani, who is also the police minister, said his party accept any further waste of time and declared that he was not influenced by reports of secret deals between Netanyahu and Syria on the future of the Golan Heights. National infrastructure minister Ariel Sharon, currently on a visit to China, was the one who broke the story of those alleged secret contacts with Syria. He warned the Third Way that their support for a second redeployment in the West Bank would serve Netanyahu in his future steps on the Golan "since he has already started his secret talks on the withdrawal from all of the Golan Heights." Ex-members of the Labor party, headed by Kahalani who opposed any Israeli compromise on the Golan Heights, had formed their Third Way independently before the last elections. Their opposition to the Labor line on the Golan Heights brought them closer to Netanyahu, only to find out that they were still at odds with the Likud prime minister over the West Bank, where their position does not differ that much from the Labor's.

Opponents to the 13 percent scale of withdrawal from the West Bank have recently expressed fears that the government might employ a trick or a surprise maneuver and approve the hand-over of territories to the Palestinians during the Knesset recess, thus avoiding any no-confidence motion, at least not before mid October. National religious party member Nissan Slomiansky quoted Netanyahu as telling him that he has decided to "carry out the withdrawal, if Arafat meets his commitments." His colleague in the party, Zvi Hendel, warned that if Netanyahu "maneuvers the withdrawal during the recess, and we then return to the Knesset in the winter to face an accomplished fact - we will support the dissolution of the Knesset." Netanyahu's supporters, like Likud faction speaker at the Knesset Meir Shitrit, fired back by threatening to set up national unity government. Shitrit said that if the coalition partners make efforts to topple the government, he would make efforts to establish a Likud-Labor government keeping outside all those who brought the government down.

Observers in Israel insist that next week will be very crucial for Netanyahu personally and for the whole government as well. The Knesset is due to discuss a bill for the dissolution of the parliament proposed by left wing Meretz party member Haim Oron and Labor's Haim Ramon. Both Ramon and Oron announced that ten members of the coalition intend to vote in favor of the bill, if negotiations on the second redeployment are not concluded favorably by the date of the discussion, next Wednesday.

Previous Stories:
  Arafat to visit Damascus, Palestinian summit location uncertain   (7/21/1998)
  Israel offers withdrawal of only 10% from West Bank   (7/21/1998)
  UN Security Council warns Israel on Jerusalem plan   (7/14/1998)

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