Probability of war next year higher than in the past
Regional-Israel, Military, 7/13/1998

Israeli military intelligence these days is busy drafting a working plan for the next year but the bottom line message to their superiors is that chances of war for the year 1999 have risen dramatically.

Should the political impasse continue, a large scale conflict with the Palestinians is likely, and there could perhaps be one with the Syrians as well, the plan anticipates. It said the Palestinians are really ready for one now. Last summer, officers in the research branch of the military intelligence reckoned that the probability of war breaking out this year is very low. They estimated that no major conflict could be anticipated with the Palestinians or with the Syrians, and that Egypt and Jordan would honor the peace agreements, and that neither Iran nor Iraq would present a major danger. But things seem to have dramatically changed since then and the prospects of a new conflict in the region seem to have increased.

According to military intelligence, both they and the General Security Services, Shin Bet, believe that Palestine has no interest in any outbreak of violence at present. As long as President Arafat believes there is a chance of making progress in the peace process and towards the goal of proclaiming an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip he will prevent any violence from erupting within his areas, military intelligence believes. But in case the Palestinians, and President Arafat himself, believe there are barriers that are impossible to pass and that block the road to statehood, the Palestinians might opt to switch tracks and utilize violence.

The other source of violence anticipated by military intelligence as reported by Yediot Ahronot on Friday, is the Syrian front. A report in the paper said that Syrian President Hafez Assad has yet to disengage entirely from reliance on the political process, but his army is diligently preparing for three possible military scenarios:

1) A surprise Syrian attack on the Golan Heights, whose purpose would be to activate a political process with Syria having an advantage.

2) Military conflict in southern Lebanon with the Syrian army being involved in the fighting this time.

3) An Israeli military attack against Syria, either in the Golan Heights or via Lebanon. Syria, claimed the paper, is worried about an Israeli scheme whose purpose would be to alter the balance of power in the Middle East, and is thus preparing to ward off such an attack. The Syrians have increased their investments in military areas, particularly in the development of ballistic missiles and anti-tank equipment.

Another dark prediction came from the Shin Bet which, according to Haaretz, anticipate Jewish settlers and extreme right wing groups to resort to fire arms to prevent the implementation of further troop redeployment in the West Bank. The Jewish anti-Jewish violence, according to Shin Bet estimates, is likely to take the form of armed attacks on Jewish groups within the Israeli society itself. The last and major incident in which anti Jewish violence was used was the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995. In the past, when Shin Bet work papers addressed Jewish violent activities, they spoke of potential attacks against Palestinian targets. This time, in an unprecedented assessment, the Jewish violent activities might target Jews as well.

Previous Stories:
  Serious confrontation between Palestine and Israel, further showdowns expected   (7/3/1998)
  Iran warns against Israeli nuclear arsenal, violation of holy shrines   (6/15/1998)
  Netanyahu's policies, warns of war... Syrian army chief says   (8/4/1997)

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