Syria vs. Israel on Lebanon
Regional, Analysis, 4/9/1998

Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai said Lebanon has expressed its desire to act on the Israeli proposal to pull out of Lebanon but is facing a number of obstacles.

Mordechai quoted the special European Community envoy to the Middle East, Miguel Moratinos who arrived in Israel two days ago coming from Lebanon, as saying that the Lebanese government is sincere in its intention to work on the Israeli offer "but someone is preventing them from doing so." That someone, as far as Israel is concerned is Syria.

Syria will do the maximum it can to thwart any unilateral Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon if it ends without Damascus receiving an appropriate price, which is the Israeli pullout of the occupied Golan Heights, military intelligence in Israel say. They believe that Syria is not interested in any form of Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon if such a move is not connected to a settlement on the Syrian Golan Heights, which Israel conquered in the June 1967 war.

Public opinion in Israel has increasingly shifted towards a settlement in south Lebanon for the sake of bringing to an end the almost daily losses of the Israeli army in the occupied zone in the south. Israel announced two weeks ago its acceptance of UN Resolution 425 which calls for an immediate Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon.

It also said it has to reach security arrangements with the government of Lebanon in order to prevent further attacks by Hizbullah or any other Lebanese resistance movement across the border. Lebanon has rejected Israel's request for security arrangements, and Israeli officials blamed Syria for the Lebanese rejection. The upcoming showdown between Damascus and Tel Aviv on the new ramparts the Syrians erected on their side of the Golan Heights is likely to stir deepened arguments between the two sides.

Senior military intelligence officers told the Knesset defense and foreign affairs committee on Tuesday that Syria is interested in receiving proper compensation from Israel and that nothing is more proper for Syria than an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. The military intelligence assessment coincided with reports from the Golan Heights front saying the Syrian army had built ramparts in what Israel claims to be part of the demilitarized area in the Heights. Israel claimed the move was military-motivated, though it has defensive aspects more than any offensive effect. It also claimed the Syrian action contravenes the 1974 disengagement of forces agreement that former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger worked out between Syria and Israel after the October War of 1973.

The Syrians insist the ramparts were set for agricultural reasons but Israeli army officers insist those were defensive and therefore are full-fledged military actions. And when the Syrians refused to back down, Israel sought the intervention of the UN. A senior officer of the UN is due to visit the region soon to examine on the ground those ramparts and present his report later to the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. Israeli officers said the ramparts were intended for military use, though their digging is based on defensive motives. A senior source in Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the matter on the ramparts should be seen in proper proportions, ruling out the possibility of a major showdown with Syria over the question.

In May last year, Syria and Israel were on the verge of an open military confrontation when the Syrian troops carried out military maneuvers in the Golan Heights and brought airborne troops from Lebanon into the front with Israel. Since then, the front has been quiet and all the effort was directed to diplomatic front. With the persistent talk in Israel about a possible unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, said one observer, Syria seems to be trying to open a new pressure front on Israel and that is in the Golan Heights. According to military intelligence assessment, Syria is worried that an Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon would deny her a bargaining chip in negotiations with Israel. Syria, an intelligence officer said, has a major influence on Hizbullah and other Lebanese resistance movements in the South Lebanon and therefore can always utilize this influence in its bargaining with Israel.

Speaking before the Knesset committee of defense and foreign affairs, the officer recalled statements attributed to officials in Damascus in which they said that an Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon would not stop attacks on Israel. He said this statement was an open message to Israel that any settlement in South Lebanon has to pass through Damascus. He added that even Hizbullah has warned the Lebanese administration not to grant Israel any security guarantees. The position of the Hizbullah, according to him, is clear. "They want to carry on their attacks on the Israeli army in South Lebanon until after Israel carries out an unconditional and entire withdrawal from the area," he said.

Defense minister Mordechai told senior officials in the Israeli military industry on Wednesday that Syria has not changed its form of military deployment in the Golan Heights despite the latest ramparts that were built on their side. Mordechai tried to cool worries of a possible showdown with the Syrians but reiterated his position that those ramparts violated the disengagement of forces agreements of 1974 and should be removed as early as possible. In a meeting he held with the special European Community envoy to the Middle East, Miguel Moratinos, Mordechai invited both Syria and Lebanon "to test the seriousness of our intentions" in Lebanon.

The Lebanese government, in the meantime is not helping Israel get out of Lebanon. Officials in Beirut, as well as in Damascus, understand well that Israel's talk of unilateral withdrawal was a result of the continued resistance by the Lebanese resistance and has nothing to do with what may seem as an Israeli moderation of attitudes. There is also understanding of the danger that Israel at any time in the future under true or false pretext that it's border is being infringed on will roll its tanks once again into Lebanon.

Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri told the British FINANCIAL TIMES on Tuesday that if the Israeli army withdraws from South Lebanon, "we will do our best to ensure that nothing happens. But if something does happen, we will not bear the responsibility." Al Hariri reiterated his position that any arrangement in South Lebanon must pass through Damascus and entail a renewal of the Syrian-Israeli negotiations.

But Israel does not seem to have lost its hope of an early settlement in south Lebanon. Reports from Paris which said that Syrian officials have approached France for clarifications on Israel's withdrawal offer have boosted hopes in Israel that a certain momentum for the withdrawal initiative may be provided by French President Jacques Chirac, who is expected to visit Lebanon next month.

Israel, by having established a history of disregarding signed agreements when it suits its purpose and it finds itself able to do so, will give little confidence to Lebanon and Syria that it is serious about peace unless it can demonstrate so through action, not words. That means getting out of Lebanon, stating that it will get out of the Golan and engaging Syria in talks about doing so. Otherwise, Israel is doing little beyond buying time and maneuvering to hold on to land that is not Israel's and is held by aggression.

Israel hopes to divide Lebanon on the issue of withdrawal along lines that divided and ravaged Lebanon in the past in its civil war. Israel, as well as others, would love to see a weak and politically polarized Lebanon that is easy to destabilize. But Christians and Muslims alike have come out publicly with statements of support for unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon, despite some concern about Lebanese in the South that are allied with Israel. And even Hizbullah have stated that it wants to see amnesty for those Lebanese that in the past due to circumstance aligned themselves with Israel, if they join in the national stand.

It wasn't long ago that the Lebanese killed each other in the most savage way and called on Syria for help. Syria has brought stability to Lebanon, and stated publicly that it will leave Lebanon when it is asked to do so. Lebanon's government has expressed an understanding of the dilemma it faces and is showing fortitude by working for a solution to its problems that will be long-lasting rather than one that relies on "words" and "assurances" by Israel that may come back to hunt it.

Israel is having difficulty proving its good intentions on "smaller" agreements that it signed with Palestine. Is it possible then to be convinced that it can deal seriously with the "bigger" and more lasting issues facing regional peace? Israel has to show that it wants to live in peace with its neighbors. Israel has to act.

Previous Stories:
  Europe' Moratinos: Withdrawal to be from Syria and Lebanon   (4/9/1998)
  Israel accuses Syria for Lebanon's position on withdrawal   (4/8/1998)
  Syria celebrates 51st Baath Party anniversary   (4/7/1998)

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