Capitulation by Iraq or conflict to come?
Iraq, Analysis, 2/26/1998

Despite the general positive international reception the UN-brokered agreement regarding the UN-US-Iraqi crisis over weapons inspections has received, there remain many issues that have not been clarified, and those issues may contain the seeds of the next standoff between the US and Iraq.

When the agreement was signed, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz said, "the priority for the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government is an expeditious implementation of paragraph 22 of resolution 687 and the lifting of all sanctions."

At the agreement's signing in Baghdad, Annan said, "The way we have discussed this problem, our determination to improve cooperation, to enhance the work of UNSCOM, and accelerate the process, we will be seeing light at the end of the tunnel," referring to the sanctions.

These expectations are in stark contrast to statements issued by various US officials who continue to reiterate that sanctions will not be lifted from Iraq until all "relevant resolutions" are satisfied, as stated yesterday by US State Department spokesman James Rubin and echoed the same day by US ambassador to the UN Bill Richardson who said "the prospect of lifting sanctions is more remote than ever."

Rubin said the US "could move towards sanctions relief if the relevant... were acted upon. But that's a long way off."

Richardson said in an interview, "We've got a long way to go here. We want to see first compliance by Iraq." He said, "It is our point of view, and many other Council members, that Iraq has to comply with all Security Council resolutions since the Gulf War. We're not talking about just one."

There is an important distinction between resolutions pertaining to the inspection process, which Iraq has agreed to meet, and other resolutions pertaining to Kuwaiti prisoners of war and Iraq's payments to Kuwait, a debt that Iraq will not be able to repay under current conditions for about 40 years.

Iraq currently pays Kuwait a portion of that debt through the oil-for-food program, which stipulates that as Iraq sells oil, a portion of the revenues generated is given to Kuwait. Iraq is in a Catch 22 in which sanctions block it from making a speedy repayment of the debt, the debt must be repaid to fulfill the resolution, and the resolution must, in turn, be satisfied before the US will allow the sanctions to end.

From this it is hard to escape the conclusion that either the US will not accept the Annan-brokered deal, or if it is accepted by the US, it is in direct conflict with the US statements about the duration of the sanctions, or if the US accepts the deal and it is formulated in such a manner as to comply with stated US goals, it is clear that Iraq will either reject the agreement as it conflicts with Iraqi statements about how the agreement is seen, or Iraq will accept and the US will have been correct as saying that Iraq has "reversed course" and capitulated.

This leads to the question of whether public statements with regard to this agreement match the reality of the agreement as to how it will be implemented, and with that comes the great potential for the breakdown of the agreement in a short period of time.

Previous Stories:
  US's Richardson bombs the agreement?   (2/24/1998)
  Awaiting approval of UN - Iraq agreement   (2/23/1998)
  Annan's visit may force US hand   (2/19/1998)

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