Elements of the solution to the Iraqi crisis
Iraq, Analysis, 2/20/1998

With UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's arrival in Iraq, hopes are running high that a compromise can be reached between the Iraqi government and that of the UN, driven primarily and almost unilaterally, by the United States.

The Iraqi position that was part of the creation of this crisis was the complaint that the UN inspection team process had become politicized through its chief inspector, Richard Butler, whom the Iraqis believe to hold similar views to the United States of not wanting to see sanctions lifted from Iraq.

Iraq had complained that the UN team failed to mark the progress Iraq has made in compliance with UN resolutions and that it is not being given the opportunity to have the sanctions lifted for fear that it may rebuild its industrial capacity, allowing it the potential to build chemical, biological weapons, and the long-range means to deliver them.

There is widespread agreement that Iraq currently does not possess any of those weapons, and the fear by some, such as the US, is that once the sanctions are lifted, Iraq will be able to resume its production of such weapons if it chooses.

These two desires, one by Iraq, to have the sanctions lifted, and the other by the US to prevent Iraq from rebuilding its industrial/military base -- and thus its desire to keep the sanctions on as the State Department has reiterated many times, using the word, "forever" -- are at the center of the current dispute.

Iraq wants to allow the inspections, unfettered and with full access; however Iraq also wants, once it has done so and it has been certified as having no prohibited weapons according to UN resolutions, to see that this certification is not done by Richard Butler, as they see Butler as favoring the US.

It is clear that the parameters for the compromise will have to accommodate Iraq's concerns, as well as US concerns. That can be achieved by having elements of the Iraqi proposal, such as having the UN inspection team results sent directly to the UN Security Council or through some other entity, bypassing Butler, while at the same time insuring that the comprehensive monitoring system the UN has in place in industrial and other centers of Iraq will remain there and operate effectively in order to allay international and Arab concerns about future rebuilding of the feared weapons.

Egyptian presidential advisor Osama El-Baz said that Annan's visit coincides with Iraqi willingness to allow the inspections to continue within a framework allowing for a diplomatic supervisor for the UN inspection team.

No Arab bases appear to be available to the US from which to launch threatened military strikes against Iraq, with Kuwait's defense minister being reported yesterday by local papers as saying that no attacks will be launched from his country and that US troops are in Kuwait for defensive purposes only. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's governments had already refused permission for the US to launch strikes from bases in their states. Spain's foreign minister also said that bases in his country will not be used to strike Iraq.

Previous Stories:
  Annan's visit may force US hand   (2/19/1998)
  The failure of US foreign policy in Iraq   (2/10/1998)

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