Ross, like Baker, brought more settlements with every trip
Palestine-Israel, Politics, 1/9/1998

As US Special Envoy to the Middle East rounded up his meetings and prepared to fly back to Washington on Saturday, Palestinian official sources complained at the fact that his arrival in the region has only brought further Jewish settlement activities in the Occupied Territories.

"What is happening today reminds us with the days of James Baker, the former secretary of state whose every arrival to the Middle East was received with a new Jewish settlement under the Shamir government," a Palestinian official said noting that Ross has no power to confront those settlement activities. The official hinted that Ross "would do better if he does not return to the region because it is now evident that every time he comes to Israel, Jewish settlers under the nose of their government speed up their construction works in the Occupied Territories."

"Even Baker found it very disappointing for him when he saw a new settlement was declared on the first day every time he arrived on his peace seeking mission and I think the Clinton Administration does not have the intention to stop this phenomena." Palestinian observers believe the US Administration under Clinton may not be prepared to go as far as what the Bush Administration did when it forwarded a number of conditions for the Israeli government in order for it to obtain the loan guarantees that were sought from Washington at the time.

Clinton, the source said, is very much worried about the upcoming presidential elections in the US and does not want to minimize the chances of his Vice-President, Al Gore, to win in those elections by antagonizing Israel's friends in the US. "I wonder what US President Bill Clinton will have to say to President Arafat when both meet on 22nd this month," he said. The Clinton-Arafat summit meeting is scheduled to take place two days after the Clinton-Netanyahu meeting and Israeli sources reiterated that Netanyahu will not take with him any decisive answers to questions forwarded by the US. True the White House has not come up with any changes to the president's agenda but with the present state of affair, the forthcoming Clinton-Netanyahu summit, if not canceled in the last minute, might bring both sides to an open showdown.

Netanyahu will try to convince President Clinton that his problems from within make it extremely difficult for him to move the peace forward. By the same token, Netanyahu will try to obtain from President Clinton a new commitment that there won't be a third phase redeployment in the West Bank and as soon as the second phase, of no more than 8 percent of the West Bank territory, is completed, both sides would move directly to the final status talks. The US has so far rejected such a proposal and the State Department said in a Thursday announcement that reminded Israel that there are three phases of redeployment to be implemented in the West Bank, unless otherwise mutually agreed upon between the Palestinians and Israelis.

Instead of discussing the scope of Israel's second phase redeployment in the West Bank and receive an unequivocal commitment from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Ross found himself involved in attempts to revive the security understanding that Palestinian and Israeli officers reached with US participation and which Netanyahu vetoed. That Ross decided to minimize his mission to this almost-finished issue shows how difficult were his talks with Netanyahu whose line of defense nowadays is to blame his failure to move forward on his extreme right wing cabinet coalition.

Therefore, it is no wonder that Ross heads back to Washington full of disappointment. All his expectations of a breakthrough in his latest shuttle diplomacy between the Palestine and Israel have evaporated. He arrived in the region a few days ago with some hope but by Friday morning, he discovered that his trip was almost useless.

The pressure on Netanyahu has mounted as his defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai threatened to resign in three months if no decision is taken on the second redeployment of troops in the West Bank. Speaking in a televised interview few days ago, Mordechai left no room to doubt what his future steps will be if no redeployment is implemented. By Friday, hours before his dinner meeting with Ross at his official house in Jerusalem, Netanyahu was clearly facing what observers call a protracted pressure from various directions, including ministers, Likud members, left wing and labor opposition, the US and Palestine.

Apart from Mordechai's threat to resign, Netanyahu also faces pressure from at least 22 other Knesset members of his 61-strong right wing coalition. They all threatened to support the no-confidence motion next week if Netanyahu does not make up his mind on the redeployment. They include ministers of the Third Way and Shas, the ultra-orthodox party. On the other side of the political spectrum stand some 17 radical hawks within the Likud who threaten to undermine any decision on the redeployment, mainly if the scope involves more than a one digit percentage.

But the most direct threat to Netanyahu today comes from Moledet, Rehvaam Zeevi's party that advocates the transfer of all Palestinians out of Palestine and their distribution among the Arab countries. Zeevi said his party would bring down the government even if only a discussion on the redeployment is convened. Last Wednesday, Zeevi turned down an offer from Netanyahu to become minister in his cabinet. "Why don't you join and change things from within," said Netanyahu and Zeevi simply replied: "No but thank you. I can change things better when I am outside."

Many argue that Netanyahu has locked himself in a critical crisis with the resignation of his foreign minister, David Levy, but it was him who made everything possible to steer Levy out of the cabinet. And it is him who will try to force Mordechai out of the government. Netanyahu simply finds it easier for him to blame the stalled peace with the Palestinians on the absence of moderate ministers in his cabinet.

While some may argue whether Netanyahu is good for the peace process or bad for it, one can only conclude that Netanyahu is good only for himself. To remain as long as he can in power, he will carry on giving promises to all parties involved yet, none of those is going to be implemented. Who said that every promise should be honored?

Previous Stories:
  Nothing expected from Ross's current efforts   (1/7/1998)
  Post-Levy era: a more extreme government   (1/6/1998)
  American attempt to support relations with Syria   (1/2/1998)

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