What has been taken by force, can only be retrieved by force?
Israel, Analysis, 11/24/1997

Insiders and observers say that the Middle East peace process is in a serious deadlock. In fact, the issue is due to three problems: Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on building Israeli settlements in Arab-occupied territories, the reluctance of the international community to persuade him to do otherwise, and the inability of the Arab countries to change this situation -- in addition to which the Arabs are still holding to a peace strategy and showing patience until the US administration can get Netanyahu out of office in the coming Israeli elections in the year 2000.

But it's the Jewish American lobby which actually decides the American administration's Middle East policy and opposes any serious pressure being put on the Israeli government, any Israeli government, right- or left-wing.

At the same time, many questions have been raised recently as to whether or not Israel is preparing for a new war. Netanyahu's recent remarks seem to indicate that the region is heading towards a war. Some analysts say that Israel may launch wars to secure its interests and impose its projects on the region.

An analysis of the domestic, regional and international circumstances that led to the 1956 and 1967 wars, as well as repeated Israeli invasions of Lebanon in 1978, 1982 and 1996, together with other Israel offensives, allows recognition of the historical circumstances surrounding Israel's decision at different times to initiate war.

Israel may take action to neutralize chemical and biological weapons capabilities in Syria. It may also launch an attack on Hizbullah.

We may also expect Israeli intervention in the areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority under the pretext that Israel is acting to ensure its security. Israel could also attempt to crush Hamas.

There are also some possibilities include comprehensive offensives against Syria or Lebanon under specific conditions, or an attack on Arab cottages Israel may accuse of possessing or constituting a non-conventional or nuclear arsenal.

Israel's national strategy for the fast 40-old years has been action-oriented and characterized by clearly-defined goals. Relying on religious, historical and security considerations.

Israel's permanent political strategic principles may be listed as follows: preserving Israel's existence by preempting Arab military action, containing command operations across the borders with front-line Arab countries, maintaining the quantitative superiority enjoyed by Israeli troops over front-line and other Arab countries, securing Israeli navigation in the Red Sea and Suez canal, deterring any Arab forces attempting to enter Jordan or Syria, trapping the Egyptian army in an accurate and well-planned way by causing it to concentrate in Sinai, then fragmenting it and attacking its rear guard, thus destroying it in the shortest time possible achieving short-term Israeli objectives.

In 1956, these consisted of imposed acceptance of Israel's existence and legitimacy.

In 1967, Israel sought territorial expansion in order to accommodate Jewish immigration, as well as the elimination of any military threats against Israel's northern territories, a goal achieved by the attack on Lebanon in 1978. This move was aimed at evacuating Arabs from the border area between Israel and Lebanon and dealing a decisive blow to the different Palestinian revolutionary organizations concentrated in southern Lebanon. Similarly, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 represented an attempt to eradicate the Palestinians there and to secure land for settlements in northern Israel.

Most recently, again in Lebanon, in 1996 the target was Hizbullah. Israel sought to deflect the threat represented by this organization, and exaggerated the danger of terrorism in order to obtain stronger backing from the US.

So, what has been taken by force, as late president Nasser said, can only be retrieved by force, and force does not necessarily mean military action, but primarily political influence.

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