Harel: Israel cannot fight against guerrillas
Lebanon, Analysis, 10/23/1997

Israeli war planes again raided bases of Hizbullah fighters in the Bekaa valley in eastern Lebanon yesterday. The raids came hours after two Israeli soldiers were slightly wounded in a Hizbullah in the eastern section of the buffer zone occupied by Israel in south Lebanon.

Analysts agree that Hizbullah has become a well-trained, well-led, and highly motivated and effective force. The Iranian-backed party has also improved its intelligence capabilities, enabling its fighters to carry out effective attacks against the Israeli occupation forces. This year alone, Israel has lost 37 soldiers in fighting with Hizbullah resistance guerrillas. This is the highest annual Israeli death toll ever since Israeli established so-called "security-zone" in southern Lebanon in 1985.

Because of these developments, cracks have opened up in the Israeli government's stand on maintaining its "security zone" in Lebanon amid growing public concern over the high level of military losses suffered this year.

Even hawkish Infrastructure Minister Ariel Sharon--who as military chief in 1982, was largely responsible for Israel's invasion of south Lebanon--now favors a pullout.

Sharon believes that if Israel leaves Lebanon now, president Hafez al Assad of Syrian will lose an important bargaining lever--the deaths of Israeli soldiers there. Sharon argues that without this lever, Assad will be in a weaker position when it comes to negotiations over the Israeli occupied Golan Heights, which Sharon is eager for the Jewish state to retain.

Another parliamentarian backing withdrawal, Yahuda Harel of the third way centrists party in coalition with Likud, told reporters, "We have to put all the responsibility on what is happening on our northern border onto the government of Lebanon. Israel cannot fight against guerrillas, but it can confront states and governments. By being in south Lebanon, we remove the responsibility from the government of Lebanon."

Sharon and Harel's open support for withdrawal from Lebanon has exposed cracks in the government line Laura Drake, a Middle East specialist who often meets officials in the region, believes Hizbullah military successes are forcing Israel to try and extricate itself from what Drake dubbed a "war of attrition."

The situation in the south is unacceptable to them [Israel], especially following the foiled Israeli command operation at Ansariyeh. This military setback coincided with the Jerusalem suicide bombings.

"There is a perception in Israel that it is fighting a war on two fronts," she said. Drake said that Israel is faced with two choices: either expand the battlefield or find a way out. "Expanding the battlefield does not necessarily mean there will be troop advancements," she pointed out. "Israel will most likely resort to policy of punishing civilians the same way it did in the Gaza Strip."

It imposed punitive economic measures on the Palestinians with the aim of decreasing support to Hamas and other groups opposed to the peace process. "So, Israel could target Lebanese civilians as to separate them from the resistance and create discord," Drake added.

Israeli opponents of continued "security zone" occupation say the country can be better defended from within its own border and that the government in Beirut should be left to control the guerrillas.

Previous Stories:
  Remains of Israeli tank recovered   (10/17/1997)
  Netanyahu willing to enter south Lebanon negotiations   (9/5/1997)
  South Lebanon Army pulls out of Saidoun   (8/14/1997)

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