Hamas and Arafat and the King
Palestine, Analysis, 10/7/1997

The release of the two Israeli Mossad agents from Jordanian prisons and their return to Israel has finished only one episode in a lengthy and scandalous affair that many in Israel now believe might only come to a real end once Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is either ousted by the Knesset or resigns, for one reason or another. But the effects of the Mossad fiasco in Jordan, or the so-called Mishal-Gate, after the Hamas political leader Khaled Mishal who was the target for the failed attempt on his life and was rescued again by the Mossad, goes far beyond the Israeli domestic politics and deep into the inter-Palestinian relations, mainly between the Palestine National Authority and Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Very crucial hours have passed between the announcement in Israel on Tuesday morning that Sheikh Ahmad Yassin had been flown to Amman and the official announcement by Jordan that the spiritual leader of the movement was free to return to Gaza once his medical examinations are over. In those hours, senior officials in Hamas in Gaza were very much annoyed and angry at the surprising "deportation" of their leader. Dr. Abdul Aziz Rantisi, formerly spokesman of the Islamic militants that Israel deported to South Lebanon in 1993, was very critical of the deportation. He even spoke openly against what he felt was a stab in the back by the political leadership of Hamas in Jordan to the local leadership in Gaza in the sense that none of those in Gaza was notified about the dramatic developments in Amman.

Rantisi spoke about how many times the Sheikh had rejected offers from Israel to choose self-deportation to Jordan or to any other country instead of his continued imprisonment. When he heard of the deal, Rantisi said that everything should be done in order to secure the return of Sheikh Yassin to Gaza. Another leader in Hamas, Dr. Mahmoud Zahhar, a considerably moderate figure within the movement, was even more outspoken in his criticism of what happened in Amman and spoke implicitly of his fears that King Hussein of Jordan would succeed in absorbing the political and the spiritual leadership of Hamas in order to prepare the ground for a possible return of the Jordanian role in the West Bank "certainly when talk has increased about the possibility of starting the final status negotiations between the PNA and Israel, from which Jordan apparently does not want to be excluded."

Other members of Hamas, not only in Gaza where the student council at the Islamic University strongly criticized Jordan, but also in Hebron where students demonstrated and chanted slogans against the role Amman played in securing the release of Sheikh Yassin and his deportation, which turned out to be temporary. However during all those crucial hours, Mousa Abu Marzouq, the former head of Hamas political department who was freed from a US prison after Israel a few months ago dropped an extradition request against him, called Dr. Rantisi in Gaza and told him that Sheikh Yassin was not deported and that King Hussein in person was a guarantor for his return to the Gaza Strip.

Rantisi, sources close to him said, was not convinced and even blamed Abu Marzouq for not updating the Hamas leadership in Gaza about what was going to happen. Others even believed Abu Marzouq was trying to play a new political game that would bring him back to the forefront since his successor, Khaled Mishal, was still being hospitalized in Jordan after the assassination attempt, and since another spokesman for Hamas in Amman, Ibrahim Ghoshe had no clearance from the Jordanian authorities to make any political statements in the Jordanian capital. Ghoshe had just been released from a Jordanian prison after some two weeks of detention that came in the wake of statements he gave after the second suicide bombing attack in West Jerusalem took place last September 4. And as if the telephone conversation between the two was not enough, Abu Marzouq later called Rantisi and said that King Hussein wanted to have a word with him.

The telephone conversation between King Hussein and Rantisi lasted for approximately 15 minutes in which the king explained he had not cut any political deals with Israel and that Sheikh Yassin was warmly welcomed in Jordan "his second homeland" for medical treatment and that he is free to leave. The King even stressed to Rantisi that Sheikh Yassin did not board the helicopter that flew him to Amman until after he received a written commitment from Israel that no deportation was in question and that the Sheikh was being released due to his health condition.

Immediately after the telephone conversation with King Hussein of Jordan was over, Rantisi took his car and drove to the Palestinian Journalists Association in Gaza where he held a press conference in which he switched his statements by 180 degrees, as he expressed deep appreciation and gratitude to the role King Hussein and Jordan played. One of those present at that ad-hoc press conference said later that Rantisi evidently had failed to explain to the press why he changed his position so dramatically, and everybody started to believe that something was being "cooked between Jordan, Israel and Hamas, not only behind the scenes but also behind the back of the PNA." That was one of the reasons PNA President Yasser Arafat decided to fly to Amman and visit the Sheikh along with King Hussein. Arafat, said a close aide, wanted to be as close as possible to that kitchen and yet wanted to distance himself from the deal that was being felt in the air."

"We listened to Khaled Mishal delivering a lengthy speech praising King Hussein and the government of Jordan and almost forgot about Arafat who was present in the same hall, until he finally thanked the PNA president just af the end of his speech," said a Palestinian official who flew with Arafat to visit Sheikh Yassin in Amman.

There are many who believe today that Hamas is on the road to transforming itself into a political movement that operates parallel to the Palestinian National Authority and not part of it. A Palestinian strategic analyst said Tuesday morning that Hamas is now preparing the ground for the post-Arafat era in the Palestine National Authority areas. He noted that Hamas hopes to become the new power in charge once Arafat's leadership is over, one way or another.

The analyst said he did not expect Hamas to cause any problems with the PNA at present. "On the contrary, Hamas will try to insist on the national dialogue with the PNA and on rapprochement with the Palestinian leadership in order to have a space of time that allows the movement to reorganize its rank and file in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank in preparation for the future."

According to Palestinian analysts, a Likud government in Israel would be more than happy to deal with a Hamas-affiliated leadership in the PNA as opposed to the PLO because such a leadership exempts Israel from talks with the Palestinians and allows the Israel better chances to seek a permanent settlement with countries like Jordan, which may still have some ambitions to restore at least parts of the West Bank. Unlike the Likud, the Labor Party, which had adopted in the past the so-called Jordanian option, had lately decided to abandon it and open direct talks with the PLO, which led to the interim agreements in Oslo. When former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was approached, on a number of occasions, to release Sheikh Yassin, he strongly refused saying that the release of the Sheikh would immediately weaken Arafat "who is my partner in the peace process and I want him to remain strong."

Perhaps this is why many among the Palestinians, and the Israelis as well, believe the release of Sheikh Yassin is counter-productive to the peace process and might weaken the leadership of Arafat. Meanwhile, the PNA, and Arafat in person, are apparently doing the maximum to avoid a face-to-face confrontation with either Hamas or Jordan. Arafat, sources in Ramallah on the West Bank said, needs Jordanian support and Hamas' good behavior. How long will that work nobody can tell but a consensus is already clear: the forthcoming days, or perhaps months, are going to be full of surprises.

Previous Stories:
  A tamer Sheikh Yassin is back   (10/6/1997)
  Arafat between kisses and behavior   (10/6/1997)
  Israel plays Hamas against Palestinians as Ross arrives   (10/5/1997)

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