Recent study sees military action on Syrian-Turkish water issue impossible
Fertile Crescent Region, Analysis, 9/6/1997

The most recent study by Syrian researcher Abdel Aziz Al-Mansour emphasized that water was and still is a source for conflict, not cooperation, in Syrian-Turkish relations. The study assigned this to the two countries' attitudes towards the nature of the problem and how it is to be settled. There is a clear contradiction in Turkey¹s behavior in connection with settling the water question with Syria and Iraq: sometimes it considers the Tigris and Euphrates rivers as international waters to be shared and other times they are considered Turkish waters.

Moreover, the study argues, Turkey offers technical solutions to manage the two rivers according to its own conception of the rational usage of the water. It does not acknowledge the Syrian or Iraqi rights to these rivers.

The most dangerous problems in the Euphrates basin region are the imbalance between available water and water demand, and water shortages in Syria and to some extent in Iraq. The situation will be even worsened in the advent of the 21st-century; Syria would not be able to face such a shortage unless it gets its fair and legitimate rights to the Euphrates and Tigris as defined by international covention.

In Syria 88% of the Euphrates comes from Turkey. River branches don¹t exceed 10%. Underground water basins lie near the Turkish borders, and if such water is pumped into the North, its rate diminishes, if not vanishes.

With this in mind, the study warned that the water shortage in Syria will reach, and even surpass the "red line" in the next decade if Turkey does not limit its huge development projects on the Euphrates. The shortage would push the Euphrates basin countries to competition and conflict over water resources.

Turkey, the study shows, has violated firmly established international rules, like the right of all countries sharing the same river to use international river waters. It has also violated the principle of "not harming others," through the construction of huge dams on both rivers regardless of Syrian or Iraqi rights in this respect. Turkey also misunderstands the principle of "notification" 9 which represents the minimum level of necessary cooperation to avoid disputes 9 between the Euphrates basin countries.

It only notified Syria and Iraq with implementation of "Ataturk Dam" and with its decision to decrease Euphrates water for a month, again regardless of the other countries' interests. The obligation of "negotiation necessity" and the principle of a third party when negations fail were violated as well. Rather, Turkey objected to Syria¹s resorting to the Arab League. Thus, Turkey has defiantly violated article 33 in the UN charter.

The study made it clear that Turkey¹s refusal, and unacknowledgement of the two rivers' international nature is illegal, it aims at affecting the fixed legal rights of Syria and Iraq.

The flow of the Euphrates and Tigris to Syria and Iraq is just a Turkish bounty, Turkey claims. This is absolutely untrue and inconsistent with all international customs and rules, particularly because Syria¹s and Iraq's present Euphrates water share is due to a temporary agreement signed between Turkey and Syria in 1987 as a step towards a hopeful final agreement on Euphrates water sharing.

As regards to how Syria has managed its water-relations with Turkey, the study mentioned the former has followed both cooperative and pressure policies. Cooperative policies can be seen in the economic and trade fields, through this cooperation has been affected by controversial issues. Politically speaking Syrian pressure is embodied in its coordination with Iraq in the creation of Arab attitude towards Turkey, warning against military cooperation with Israel, attitude towards the PKK (Kurdlish labor party) and strategic relations with Iran.

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