Bush in the Middle East talks about peace, oil, weapon's deal
Regional-USA, Politics, 1/15/2008

US president George W. Bush's visit to several Middle Eastern countries covered the peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis, oil prices, US weapons sales to gulf states, and Iran.

A senior administration official in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, who chose not to be named, said about Bush's trip to Saudi Arabia that It will "reaffirm his personal relationship with King Abdallah. It is a close, personal relationship. The President views King Abdallah as really a remarkable figure. He has been active in the diplomacy in the region. You may remember the Crown Prince Initiative, which became the Beirut Initiative, which was then reaffirmed in the last year, became the Arab League Initiative, which basically offers a framework of potential reconciliation between the Arab states and Israel as part and in support of the reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis. And it is a framework that could provide both support for President Abbas and also support for Olmert, as they try to negotiate a peace."

He added "You also may remember that Saudi Arabia was very active when Lebanon was under siege, right after the period of time that Syria had departed and the Siniora government was standing up, put a billion-and-a-half dollars at the availability of the new Lebanese government, to try and show a sign of both financial and diplomatic support. So Saudi has been active in diplomacy; it is supportive of the effort the President is making with Israelis and Palestinians to try and find a permanent peace. He's also a man who thinks very much about the future of his country. It's a very conservative society, as you know. He has started some steps in movements towards reform; a dialogue on the future of the country, as you know, that has involved various segments from the country; beginning municipal elections. Again, this is a conservative society and it is moving at a pace that King Abdallah believes is appropriate to that society, but he's a man who thinks deeply about the future of his country and I think understands that it needs to change."

The senior US official said "The President going there of course will reaffirm our traditional ties with Saudi Arabia. It will reaffirm and strengthen his personal relationship with King Abdallah. It will also have, I think, a message of the importance of the time in which we are in. I think King Abdallah and the President both see a struggle between extremists and those who have a more hopeful vision for their countries. And you see it playing out in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, in the Palestinian Territories, the struggle between extremists and those who are willing to oppose them. And they will talk about that overall strategic challenge to the region and to stability into the future of the region."

He added "And I think one of the things the President will urge His Majesty is to continue to do what he did in Lebanon; that is to say, to make a strategic investment in the future of the region, a region which would not be dominated by extremists, and that means, of course, support for the unity government in Baghdad, support for Fayyad and President Abbas -- Prime Minister Fayyad and President Abbas, as they try and build the institutions of a Palestinian state and negotiate with Israel; support -- the continued support for Lebanon and Siniora government and the Hariri-led March 14th group; and generally supporting the cause of those who would oppose extremism both in their diplomacy and in, of course, the financial resources, which Saudi Arabia has and could make an enormous difference in places like the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and other locations."

The US official said "So that is really the framework of the conversations. It is what they will be speaking about. Obviously they will be talking about the character of the overall challenge to the region and what we two countries can do together, with other right thinking countries in the region to deal with it."

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, accompanying Bush, and at his stop in Saudi Arabia for Monday and Tuesday, was asked if Bush accepts the recent US National Intelligence Council report that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponization program in 2003 and if the president fully accepts this conclusion, "Or is there any -- has the president expressed to you, are you aware of any feeling on the president's part that, however sincere the analysts might have been, they might have gotten it wrong? Has he admitted the possibility at all in his mind that the analysts may be wrong about this?"

Perino said "I've not heard the President express anything but support for the intelligence community. But I think what he has said, and he has repeated both privately and publicly, is that he does not believe that the NIE (National Intelligence Estimate report) that was produced -- was it two months ago -- should provide anyone any comfort that Iran is not a threat. In fact, it underscored for him and for many others, as we've learned from around this region, that they also believe that Iran remains a threat."

Perino also said "But there is no doubt that across the world the NIE that was put out by our intelligence community did cause some confusion. And one of the things the President has done at every stop is to tell them that he believes that Iran was a threat, they are a threat, and they will continue to be a threat if they are allowed to have a nuclear weapon. He believes that they have the right to have civilian nuclear power. He has provided, along with his international partners, a way for Iran to come to the table and have a negotiation for civilian nuclear power if they verifiably suspend. And so until we see that, I think that we will remain concerned and skeptical, and continue down the diplomatic path. Another point that the President has made when this has come up is that he does believe that this problem can be solved diplomatically. But I also want to underscore for you that it is a mistake to think that these meetings that the President has had across this region have been about Iran. If it has come up, it has been brief."

Asked that "Some of us who have had an opportunity during this trip to talk to foreign policy officials of governments in countries where the President had visited, have heard from them that their message was, they don't want the US meddling in their relations with Iran, that they can conduct their own dealings through their own channels. Is that something that the President was told in any way, shape, or form by them?"

Counselor to the President Ed Gillespie who is also on the trip said " I did not hear anything like that. I think -- and the President was sharing his view of concerns about Iran and I think he was making clear, as Dana pointed out, in terms of the NIE, that the fact that they are continuing to enrich uranium, they are continuing to test and deploy ballistic missiles, delivery systems, and that they had a secret weapons program that they have halted, but that clearly -- in response, by the way, to international pressure -- that doesn't mean that they couldn't start again, and that that is a concern of the United States. And we wanted to share -- the President wanted to share that that's a continuing concern, and that the -- our view of the NIE is that it reinforced that concern."

He added "They shared views, as well, again, which I'm not going to characterize, but I don't think -- I didn't hear anyone suggest along the way in any of the meetings that I was in that this not a legitimate concern for the President, and that they also -- that they saw the -- Iran as an important relationship for them, as well, obviously here in the region."

Perino added "Yes, I would just add, of course, many of these countries have had relationships with Iran for a long time, and actually the President thinks it's important that they do have those relationships, because one of the things that we can do to help the Iranian people realize their dreams and to get out from under the isolation that their current government is making them live under -- is having channels to provide for dialogue is not a bad thing at all. In fact, the President encourages it."

Worth noting on US popularity and how it is regarding in the area is a report by National Public Radio in which a US professor who conducts polling in this region said that the US policy and President Bush are highly unpopular in the region because US rhetoric does not match its policy on the ground. Many attribute the association and support of US policy to Israel as the main cause of this view.

Gillespie was asked "These are four countries that are -- are major producers of oil in the world. Did the President at any time bring up with any of these rulers, either in a private session or in group sessions, the Americans' concern about the high price of oil?"

Gillespie said " Yes, they talked about oil. The President made the point about the -- part of his agenda is alternative fuels and alternative sources of fuel. They talked about the nature of the market and the vast demand that's on the world market today for oil. That was a point that was obviously made in the course of these conversations by our friends, and that's a legitimate and accurate point. So there has been discussion of oil and energy, along with other issues that have come up in these talks."

Gillespie did not want to say if those leaders in any way indicate some possible ways they're going to act against those high prices saying "I don't want to characterize -- I'm more comfortable letting other governments characterize the nature of the conversation from their perspective."

He added "in his discussions of alternative energy, the President also mentioned nuclear energy as an important source of energy in the future."

It is not clear if such guarantees would be granted,and if granted to exclude Israel, this would leave these weapons aimed for use against other regional countries.

US National Security Advisor Steve Hadley on the president's trip was asked about the arms deal with Saudi Arabia as to where things stand and if Is there going to be a notification going to Congress.

DefenseNews.com had reported last November that late last year "Worried by the possible sale of satellite-guided bombs to Saudi Arabia, 188 members of the US House of Representatives warned President George W. Bush they will oppose the sale unless he can 'guarantee" that it "will not harm US forces or our democratic ally Israel.'" addding "In a letter released Nov. 19, the House lawmakers said they have 'serious concerns over the administration's plan to sell Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) technology to Saudi Arabia without solid assurances that such weapons cannot be used against American or allied forces.'"

Hadley said "There's another notification coming to the Hill that will go probably sometime today. I talked a little bit about it the last time we got together. The package, as you know, was really announced here months ago. It's the same package. But what the process is when you announce a package like this, then American representatives, Saudi representatives need to sit down and go through the specifics of the package -- what are their requirements, how will we meet them specifically. And then once that is done, it gets notified to the Congress. So these are not new announcements. This is the implementation of the announcement that was made months ago. Pretty big package, a lot of pieces. As these pieces get readied and worked out between the two parties, they can then get notified on the Hill." He did not confirm the dollar amount of the deal and if it was $20 billion saying an announcement about this will be made later.

Steven Hadley offered a summary of the president's stop in the United Arab Emeriates. Hadley said "The President then really had, in addition to the cultural events, which you all saw, he had a meeting with the Dubai School of Government and also with -- a meeting with the Young Arab Leaders. Let me say a word about each of those organizations, since you're not familiar with them, and then a little bit about what the conversation was like. The Dubai School of Government was established by Mohammed bin Rashid. It is -- its aim is to promote good governance through research and professional training. They have a number of programs; they're doing a number of them in collaboration with the JFK Kennedy School of Government up at Harvard. They organize various forums, and they also have a leadership training program for people in government from countries in the region. And this is interesting about UAE leading reform not only internally, but through the region more generally. The second group, the Young Arab Leaders, it's an organization that aims to develop a network of young Arab men and women, again, not just in UAE, but throughout the Middle East region. It has chapters throughout the Arab world. Most of the members are under 45; they're considered future leaders in their fields. And it's an effort to develop initiatives throughout the region."

He added "the other thing that was interesting about that is that His Highness has sent them out to meet counterparts in the United States and other countries, as well. A hundred of them came and met with a hundred Americans in the United States recently. They either have completed or are on their way to go to Chile to have a similar exchange. So this is UAE reforming itself, being a -- in some sense, providing an example for the region, and then on behalf of the region, working out -- reaching out to a more international audience. In those conversations, it was pretty interesting -- obviously, there's been a lot of talk about the importance of foreign investment in places like UAE. One of the things that came up, of course, was the desire of the UAE to also invest in other markets, including the United States. They have, as you know, sovereign wealth funds, which they have accumulated, which they are using not only for internal investment, but also in investment abroad."

Hadley said "And one of the things that they raised with the President was a concern, particularly in the wake of the Dubai Ports, of whether investment by the UAE was welcome in the United States. And the President reassured them that it very much was, that the United States is open for foreign investment. That is our policy because it is in our interests; that -- he noted that to the extent those investments raise national security concerns, there is a forum and a process -- the CFIUS process -- to resolve those concerns. We had a sort of firm time line. But the overwhelming, vast majority of investments have traditionally raised no such concerns. So we wanted to emphasize that the United States continued to remain open for foreign investment. There was a lot of discussion about the US economy, the importance of the United States economy, and a healthy US economy, to this region. The President was reassuring about the underlying fundamentals on the economy, and his optimism on its long-term strength."

He added "There was a talk -- they raised with him the importance of the Middle East peace process to them as an item important to the region, and as an issue that progress on the Middle East peace process would help them deal with the challenge of extremism in the region. That was something they shared with him. The President, in turn, expressed some of the reactions he's had to the trip. I think it's fair to say he was very impressed by the UAE. One of the reasons he was very impressed was -- a couple things. He had a real sense -- he is very much impressed by the entrepreneurial spirit of the people; that these are people who not only have a -- who want to build their own future, who have a vision for their country, that it can be -- that vision can be an example for the region, but it is characterized by an entrepreneurial spirit, a willingness, a desire to get things done, to take a vision and turn it into concrete results on the ground."

Hadley said "He's very impressed by the tolerance of this society, and by its empowerment of women, because as you know, and you heard him say many times, he believes that freedom and development require and benefit heavily from the empowerment of women, and that is something he could see very clearly in his meetings here with the UAE. And, of course, the freedom agenda came up. This is something that comes up as part of this trip. The President expressed his views about freedom -- you've heard him say it many times -- the importance of the freedom agenda to the long-term prosperity and security of the region."

Regarding the peace process talks between the Palestinians and Israelis, Gillespie said "The President was looking forward to sharing with the King, as he has with other leaders, his conversations and his insights from his time in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and obviously sharing with him why he's optimistic about this being a good time for that (peace). And so I think, obviously, in terms of the time, why it's a good time, one of the reasons it's a good time, I do think that all of these leaders know this President, they understand that he does have a year left in office and I think they see that as an opportunity for all of them to deal with someone they know. And that's not to say that they're not going to know the next President; possibly some may, some may not. But I think they have faith and they have confidence and trust, from the meetings I've sat in and seen the personal interaction. It's a very positive relationship that the President has with these leaders. And I think that they -- it would -- they've been clear that they see this as an opportunity for them to take advantage of the fact that this is the President's last year in office, he's not running for reelection, he doesn't have to worry about the politics and that kind of thing. So I think they see it as an opportunity."

He added "If they're looking past his presidency and anticipating things -- which I'm sure they are, I'm sure they're thinking ahead; they are obviously very astute and thoughtful and care deeply about the relationship with America, and I'm sure they're anticipating different changes -- but they have not raised that, that I've seen with the President."

He said "think he feels a sense of opportunity. And I know you've heard from him and from Steve and from others about why we feel that this moment in time with the leaders that we see in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and the fact that the -- many of the neighbors also seem interested in trying to help make this work and are supportive of the process, that there's an opportunity here. I think it's coincidental that it occurs in the last year of the President's presidency, but I think that's a good thing, and I think that does allow him to put much focus on it. As you know, he said as he was leaving Israel that he'll return to the region again in May; Secretary Rice obviously very deeply committed to the process and spending a lot of time and travel on it, as well."

He added "And so I think it's more, Mike, the circumstances, one of which is the fact that it's the President's last year in office and he doesn't have any political agenda to bring to bear into the process that I think is an advantage for him."

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