White House assessment of Iraqi violence and democracy
Iraq-USA, Politics, 8/18/2006

White House spokesman Tony Snow said yesterday that "There were reports that an unnamed military expert had received briefings at the White House that we are continuing alternatives other than democracy in Iraq. It's just not true. The article does note, however, that there has been increased violence in Iraq in recent months, and that is absolutely true."

Snow gave an assessment of the situation in Iraq saying "We had testimony from General Abizaid last month; ones of the things he noticed is, I think he said the sectarian violence had been worse than he'd ever seen it, and that if trends continued, it could place Iraq on a path towards civil war. And the peace in The Times I thinks reflects some of the thinking that went into that. On the other hand, there are developments also subsequent to the third of August, I think, which was the named date of a memo that had been obtained."

He said "A couple of things are probably worth noting. Number one, there is coalition presence throughout the country, but also the training up of Iraqi forces, which have become increasingly nimble and capable. I mentioned yesterday there had been outbreaks of violence that have been handled solely by Iraqi forces in three different parts of the nation, including Najaf and Basra, within the last week or so.

"Iraqi Arabs also, as I stressed, retain a strong sense of nationhood, and many people in Iraq still remember a time when sectarianism was not, in fact, a guiding feature or a significant feature of Iraqi life. No major political figure in Iraq has described the situation as a civil war or advocated one, and as a matter of fact, the Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and other Shiite leaders, in fact, have played a very prominent and welcomed role in trying to restrain Shiite response to some of the sectarian violence.

"The administration continues, though, to take a very close and candid look at what's going on. The security situation in some places is uneven, and it's clear that there are huge challenges that await us. The military commanders have been trying to reshape and retool operations, especially in the Baghdad area, and they've yielded some fruit.

"I mentioned yesterday the previously violent Dura neighborhood. Let me just give you some of the stats I've received -- and these are about a week old now, but they give you a sense of what's going on -- more than 5,000 US and Iraqi forces were involved in an operation that took violence down by more than 80 percent in Dura. Since the operations began the number of murders dropped to zero. It's the same neighborhood where there were, in some cases, 20 murders a day."

Snow added "They cleared more than 3,000 buildings; they arrested 22 detainees; they seized weapons. There was an AP story that came out yesterday, I think you probably saw, that talked about Amariyah and a five-day sweep that had similar results. I don't want to be claiming that violence no longer is a fact of life in Iraq because it is. But on the other hand, there are continued efforts to try to be effective throughout the region. Some other things as you look at stories ahead to think about:As coalition forces, as US and Iraqi forces become more effective in neighborhoods in Baghdad, you can expect some members of al Qaeda in Iraq and also insurgent groups to filter elsewhere, and especially to test out the fitness of Iraqi forces. This will sort of parallel what we saw in Afghanistan, when you saw a transition of forces from US to other forces. So that is likely to happen. We anticipate that."

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