Russia's policy on Iran and Muslim neighbors
Iran-Russia, Analysis, 5/9/2006

The issue of Iran's nuclear file being in front of the UN Security Council and the role played by Russia as a permanent member of the Security Council has come to the front in being a veto wielding country, as China is as well.

China and Russia said they oppose sanctions or military action against Iran over this issue. In light of this, it is worthwhile to examine Russia's foreign policy position on this issue.

Russia has been wooed forcefully by the US to adopt a position that opposes Iran. Russia has economic interest in following the US agenda, since Russia needs US support among international institutions that provide financial aid to Russia. Also, Russia reportedly interest in access to US market and support for World Trade Organization membership.

Russia, as all nuclear powers, one would speculate, is also jealous of its status as a nuclear power, and like all other nuclear powers, don't want anyone else to join their club.

Beyond that, Russia seems to have ambivalence about a regional country be a nuclear country, even if it does not have nuclear weapons. The US has tried to scare Russia about a country, Iran, with future "potential" for developing nuclear weapons "at its door," in reference to the proximity of Iran to Russia. And especially, and implicitly, that Iran being a "Muslim" country, is somehow more dangerous than a non-Muslim country owning nuclear weapons. The implied message can be seen to be that these Muslims are a defective bunch or less trust worthy than their counterpart human beings.

Beyond this, there is a much more important factor that is not being looked at. It is the reality of Russia's geography. Looking at Russia and its many southern neighbors, we see a clear map of a country surrounded by a great multitude of nations with Muslim populations. In fact, the map is quit clear in how wide and deep the arc of countries with Muslim populations surrounding Russia is.

Look at the Russian neighbor countries to the south:



Now look at the Russian neighbor countries by religion. Note that this map is from the Soviet era (all the green areas include Muslim populations), and includes the Muslim region in West China. The map has been slightly modified, but should give a good view of the general picture:



Russia geostrategic interest must bring considerable interest in its neighbor countries. As such, these Muslim populations surrounding Russia, and which have historic relations with Russia, are likely to examine Russia's decision regarding Iran from a new perspective not talked much about in the West. And what is at stake can be considerable for Russia's national and regional interest.

Russia had faced a dramatic reductions of its international influence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. While Russia tried to reconstitute some semblance of international presence, it has become in effect a non-player on the international scene. In Europe and around its European edge, Russia's role was and is further being reduced. Russia's one influence and opportunity for political and economic benefit lies with its southern neighbors. In these countries, there is much still at play. And, Russia is before a choice in its foreign policy that can have sever consequences as those of the collapse of the Soviet Union, to in essence, shrink back Russia's influence all the way to its own border. All that is needed, is for Russia to show lack of support for these Muslim countries and their interest, and events can potentially cascade to change how these neighbor Muslim populations look at Russia, and their future implications. Future implications can mean the start of rejection of Russia's influence with these countries and interest.

Instead of these countries looking north to Russia for trade and political interest, they will quickly turn west towards Turkey and Europe and east towards China, to meet their political and economic interests, leaving Russia a politically reduced country.

And if Russia cannot be counted on to export the major items of weapons, whose utility will increasing be questioned, and major projects such as nuclear reactors where Russia may hesitate to honor its obligations towards, then the only people who will likely be heading north will be few, and of absolute necessity.

Russia has been very shy to support third world countries in the struggle against big powers on important issues of fairness, as Russia has been very preoccupied with its own problems and needing western help itself. However, Russia seems to be failing to make strong friends among its neighbors, with Russia's economic and political interest now at the risk of being endangered.

With Russia's position opposing sanction or military acts against Iran, Russian officials reportedly said that any such act against Iran will have very serious consequences to Russia and its CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) neighbor countries. It seems that some Russians see well the implications that can develop from Russia not standing by one of its important neighbors, and not being seen as a friend.

By,
Jamil Kazoun

Previous Stories:
  UN Security Council is an example of despotism   (4/26/2006)
  Iran has full right to pursue full nuclear development   (1/28/2006)

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