Rumsfeld: Iraq situation difficult but not civil war
Iraq-USA, Politics, 3/15/2006

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld yesterday said "When you consider the day-to-day events in Iraq, it's clearly a very difficult situation. Violence continues. The democratic process can be frustratingly slow, particularly in a country that has little or no experience with representative government. And of course we have heard predictions of an imminent civil war in Iraq off and on for some time now."

Rumsfeld in a press conference yesterday with US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace said there are discussions among Iraqi elected and non-elected religious leaders to solve the situation and this is a positivive issue.

He said "To properly evaluate the situation in Iraq, it seems to me, we ought to consider the following questions. Are the Iraqi people supporting their nation's democratic transformation? Are the Iraqi forces taking on more responsibility for the security of their country? And are the coalition forces in Iraq helping to make our country safer? First, are the vast majority of the Iraqi people supporting the coalition's effort in Iraq? And the answer clearly is yes. Consider that despite threats to their lives and to their families, the percentage of Iraqis participating in elections over the past year has increased each time, from the election for the provisional government to the constitutional referendum in October to the election of the permanent government. Large numbers of Iraqis continue to volunteer to join their security forces, despite attacks waged against those forces. And the number of tips from Iraqis to the authorities about terrorist activities have increased to encouragingly high levels.

"Second, are the Iraqi people taking on more security responsibilities in their country? And the answer is also yes. Today some 100 Iraqi battalions are in the fight against the terrorists, and 49 control their own battle space. About 75 percent of operations involve Iraqi security forces, and nearly half of those are independently Iraqi-planned, conducted and led. Iraqi security forces control the battle space currently for about 60 percent of Baghdad, including areas such as Haifa Street, Sadr City and the airport road. And last, is the coalition effort in Iraq contributing to US security? And the answer, in my view, is also yes. A free and stable Iraq will not go to war against its neighbors, will not use chemical weapons against its own people, will not harbor or support terrorists, will not pay rewards to the families of suicide bombers and will not seek to kill Americans. Our coalition is fighting terrorists in Iraq so we do not have to fight the terrorists here at home. Moreover, the rise of a democratic Iraq as in Afghanistan is giving millions of people the hope that they, too, might take part in free societies. And as that desire spreads, it will severely undermine the militant ideology that feeds terrorism and opposes the right of free people.

"Three years into the operation in Iraq, I recognize that well- meaning people can ask, "Why is it important that we complete the mission?" Similar questions have been asked about our country's efforts in other eras. But consider what the world would be like if, whenever things seem to go wrong or to have grown more difficult than expected, the Americans and their leaders in that generation had simply thrown in the towel rather than persevering. Europe likely would not be free and united today. The Soviet Union would not be on the ash heap of history. Germany and Japan would not be democratic allies, and the Republic of Korea would most certainly not be an important ally in Asia and the 12th-largest economy in the world. So, too, the sacrifices of today will over time prove the worth of this cause."

Rumsfeld and general Pace were asked "You and General Pace and, indeed, the president and others have had intimated strongly in recent days that Iran is stirring -- actively stirring up violence in Iraq. You said that Revolutionary Guards and IEDs and weapons are moving across the border from Iran. What you have not said conclusively is whether the government of Iran and the mullahs are sponsoring that activity. Do you have proof that they are, indeed, behind this, the government of Iran?"

General Pace said "I do not." Rumsfeld however added that it is difficult to have proof of Iranian involvement, but they are suspected saying "it's very difficult to tie a thread precisely to the government of Iran. As we all know, there are pilgrimages where Shi'a come from Iran and around the world to go to holy places in Iraq, and they come by the thousands, sometimes tens of thousands. And so, that is also a difficult -- in fact, there's one coming up very soon, a pilgrimage to the holy places there, in the next week or two, as I recall. Now if, on the other hand, you have evidence, intelligence or physical evidence, that Revolutionary Guard or Qods Force people are in Iraq, you again can't -- it's entirely possible they're rogue elements, and they're just there on their own, or they're pilgrims. Not likely."

Asked "Are you saying that you assume, then, that the government of Iran is supporting this effort toward increasing violence in Iraq?"

Runsfeld said "The way I've put it is slightly different. I don't know that it's for me to make assumptions. I state what I know to be the case. It think it has been clearly expressed by the Iranian government that they're not enamored of the idea of a representative sectarian government in their neighboring country. They have different wishes for how Iran -- how Iraq might turn out. So clearly they are not on the side of those forces in the country that are eager to see that government come together and govern from the center and function in a manner that's respectful of all elements in Iraq, in a representative system, with a constitution that they've fashioned themselves, because that is so fundamentally contrary to the system that exists in Iran."

General Pacce said Iraq is facing two roads at this moment that it can take, civil war or reconciliation. He said "both sides of the path have opened to the Iraqi people right now. There is the path toward civil war, and pieces of that path are in place. And there's the path to freedom and representative government and a prosperous future, and that right now the Iraqi people were -- through their government and with their government, were making the basic fundamental decisions which of those paths they want to walk down. And right now, I believe that they have looked at the path that leads to civil war and decided they do not want to go in that direction, and they're very much looking toward how can they have a unified government and move down that path. And there are many, many more voices for unification and freedom amongst the leadership, both elected and religious, in that country than there are voices of opposition."

Asked if a civil war is more likely now than ever before, Rumsfeld said "I think if we get a government and the government is representative of the country and the government decides to govern from the center, and the elements, diverse elements in that country, which have spent decades not particularly liking each other and being somewhat fearful of each other, but held apart, basically, by a vicious repressive regime, killing hundreds of thousands of them in the process, I think once people get comfortable with the constitution and with the government reflecting that constitution, that that should have a beneficial effect. Can I prove it? No. Will we know soon? You bet. And is that soon enough for me?"

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