Libya, Iran, North Korea and the nuclear proliferation issue
Regional, Analysis, 12/23/2003

In the lack of success by the US to stop the North Korean nuclear weapons program, and the North Korean declaration that it has become a nuclear power, and the failure to force Iran to go beyond what is legally allowable in by signed nuclear non proliferation treaties, the Libyan agreement to provide access to its activities related to acquiring nuclear technology has garnered some attention. This attention can be viewed in the frames of the US to focus on Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, in providing maximum public pressure on these countries to limit their nuclear activities.

Starting with North Korea, there seem to be a lot of wishful thinking, projected into the public arena, in that North Korea is willing to give up its nuclear weapons. Unlike Libya, which does not have advanced credible military programs, or the more advanced Iranian technical capabilities, North Korea seems to already be a nuclear power on its way to consolidate its position.

Clearly, a wide flanking action has been underway to contain and dismantle North Korea's leverage, as North Korea, can severely upset the balance of power in the Korean peninsula, and the Middle East if it so chooses.

So while containing North Korea’s nuclear development failed, the best hoped for effort now is to limit the limit its production, and prevent it form providing nuclear capabilities and weapons to others.

The US is clearly not only making efforts to contain North Korea, but also, to contain North Korea’s ability to disseminate its weapons, thus removing another bargaining chip from North Korea's hands, by pressing North Korea to dismantle its weapons, in the hope of achieving a lesser goal, which is to prevent North Korea from spreading its nuclear weapons and program.

Clearly, North Korea, can and has already secured its position and has the upper hand in any talks, and is likely to increase this power by not only fortifying its nuclear arsenal, but by actually selling a couple of weapons, to strengthen its position even further, and force future negotiations goal to be held under the now credible threat of further sales, thus shifting the whole discussion. Otherwise, North Korea, will have difficulty containing its position in the long term in that its cards will be taken away from it one by one. These are some of the elements surrounding the Libyan issue, with the hope also, even by fearful Arab states who have not learned to trust themselves or Iran, that Iran would follow suite. Iran seems to have opted for a weaker position, but a more defensible one, in that it will insist on developing its nuclear civilian technological capabilities, as it is legally eligible to do, making it able to brush aside more easily the US attempts to sprinkle its usual doubts about these legal efforts, and the mistaken belief that the US would stop doing so (if Iran abides).

Though the Libyan decision is inconsequential militarily, it is significant internally in terms of the political reforms its leader spoke of intending to implement, and on the success of foreign pressure to realign Libya's policy. While Israel has and continues to advance nuclear capabilities, It remains to be seen how the other countries will maneuver, in light of the security that nuclear power provides. With this in mind, eyes will be on North Korea, and whether North Korea will flip this game and its rules upside down, as it has done once before, by not only selling nuclear technology, but the weapons themselves.

Previous Stories:
  CIA disclose cooperation with UK and Libya; Libya cancels Arab Maghreb meet   (12/22/2003)
  IAEA signs accord for enhanced UN nuclear inspections in Iran   (12/19/2003)
  The US, weapons of mass destruction and the politics of fear   (9/24/2003)
  BBC controversial documentary on Israel's nuclear arsenal   (6/30/2003)
  Netanyahu, Sharon fail to convince Russia to stop nuclear aid to Iran   (3/23/1999)
  New book on Israel's nuclear weapons   (9/12/1998)
  Israeli wall of secrecy on nuclear reactor is down   (10/13/1997)

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