American scenario for the region
Regional-USA, Politics, 4/20/2002

The Lebanese daily al-Deyar said Friday that information collected within the past 48 hours indicate of a scenario that it is under preparation in the region, and Washington has been keeping its diplomatic activity despite the fact that the US secretary of state Colin Powell left the region.

Special information of well-informed sources said that there are elements for a scenario which expects that the US President George Bush after he was briefed on the results of Powell's tour in the region to repeat his request of Israel's withdrawal from the West Bank and that a partial withdrawal will meet this American request in a way that such a withdrawal will come within few days before the visit of the Saudi crown prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz to the US and his meeting with President Bush.

According to the scenario which was talked about by the sources and following the meeting ( between prince Abdullah and Bush), the US administration will show readiness to reconsider in the sides to take part in the new international conference under preparations in a way that it takes into account the reservations shown by each of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan not to get Syria and Lebanon taking part in such a conference. Moreover, the paper continued this American position will be depicted as constituting an Arab achievement bargained by adopting a formula based on the following: At the political level preparations for a new international conference to be held in Washington in June under the auspices of the US and the presence of Europe and Russia as observers and the participation of Saudi Arabia and may be some Arab Gulf states, Morocco and the Cordoning states ( countries bordering Israel like Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt). This conference, the paper continued will be held under the title " Peace in the Middle East according to Madrid terms of reference," noting that this title will take from the Arab initiative through a Saudi participation the element of "normalization" to have it into one of its priorities and drop the right of return to the Palestinian refugees and withdrawal back until the borders of June 4, 1967 stated in the Arab initiative. The paper continued that the conference will take from Madrid conference "general ideas" and will concentrate on vagueness of the border of the Israeli withdrawals.

At the security level, sending American observers not UN observers to the tension points in the West Bank and Gaza taking into consideration founding what is called the security buffer zones. The sources did not rule out that a proposal will be made to sending American observers also to Shebaa farms, and also discussing the issue of these ( Shebaa ) farms in the conference and therefore the attempt to play on the united Lebanese- Syrian track and trying to dismantle this track.

On the other hand, the Lebanese paper al-Kifah al-Arabi quoted a European ambassador in Beirut as saying that there is a "grace period" for Syria and Lebanon that might extend to two months or more to follow the American own way of peace, else, a signal will be given to Israel to carry out a military act against them especially striking the positions of the Hizbullah party in all areas and bombarding the Syrian military centers inside the Lebanese territories.

The European ambassador ruled out any change in the unwavering positions of Syria and Lebanon and therefore when Powell returns back to the region he might hear the same word he had already heard the previous time from Presidents Bashar al-Assad and President Emil Lahoud. The ambassador hinted that danger lies in this very Lebanese and Syrian position, because the US, at any time, is not used to be underestimated by any Arab or foreign state or to have its solution rejected and as a result the US might give Sharon the green light to deal with conditions of south Lebanon and the Bekaa Plain the way it finds appropriate.

Previous Stories:
  Powell's statements on Syria and Lebanon   (4/17/2002)
  On Powell's visit to Syria, Lebanon   (4/16/2002)
  Powell's mission, Syria and Lebanon   (4/9/2002)

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