US: Iraq is a strategic threat to implementing US policy in the Middle East
Iraq-USA, Politics, 2/4/2002

Following are excerpts from a speech delivered on last February by US Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency on how the USA views Iraq. Admiral Wilson said that Iraq threatens the very foundation of US policy in the Middle East. This clearly makes Iraq a very strategic target of US foreign policy.

Wilson said there "An increased chance that Iraq will be successful in gaining widespread support for lifting UN sanctions ... a development that would likely strain our relations with regional and European allies, allow Iraq to rearm more rapidly, and ultimately, threaten the foundation of our Middle Eastern policy."

Wilson added "The potential development/acquisition of intercontinental missiles by several states of concern -- especially North Korea, Iran, and Iraq -- could fundamentally alter the strategic threat."

Wilson added "So long as Saddam or someone of his ilk remains in power, Iraq will remain challenging and contentious. Saddam's goals remain to reassert sovereignty over all of Iraq, end Baghdad's international isolation, and, eventually, have Iraq reemerge as the dominant regional power. For the time being, however, his options are constrained. Years of UN sanctions, embargoes, and inspections, combined with US and Coalition military actions, have significantly degraded Iraq's military capabilities. Manpower and materiel resource shortages, a problematic logistics system, and a relative inability to execute combined arms operations, remain major shortcomings. These are aggravated by intensive regime security requirements."

Wilson added Nevertheless, Iraq's ground forces continue to be one of the most formidable within the region. They are able to protect the regime effectively, deploy rapidly, and threaten Iraq's neighbors absent any external constraints."

Wilson added "Iraq's air and air defense forces retain only a marginal capability to protect Iraqi air space and project air power outside Iraq's borders. Although the threat to Coalition Forces is limited, continued Iraqi confrontational actions underscore the regime's determination to stay the course. Iraq has probably been able to retain a residual level of WMD and missile capabilities. The lack of intrusive inspection and disarmament mechanisms permits Baghdad to enhance these capabilities."

Wilson added "Iraq probably retains limited numbers of SCUD-variant missiles, launchers, and warheads capable of delivering biological and chemical agents."

Wilson added "Baghdad continues work on short-range (150 km) liquid and solid propellant missiles allowed by UNSCR 687 and can use this expertise for future long range missile development. Iraq may also have begun to reconstitute chemical and biological weapons programs."

Wilson added "Absent decisive regime change, Iraq will continue to pose complex political and military challenges to Coalition interests well into the future. Saddam has been increasingly effective during the past year at circumventing sanctions and exploiting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to garner sympathy for Iraq's plight by linking the Iraqi and Palestinian causes. Should sanctions be formally removed, or become de facto ineffective, Iraq will move quickly to expand its WMD and missile capabilities, develop a more capable strategic air defense system, and improve other conventional force capabilities. Under this scenario, Baghdad could, by 2015, acquire a large inventory of WMD -- including hundreds of theater ballistic and cruise missiles -- expand its inventory of modern aircraft, and double its fleet of armored vehicles. While this force would be large and potent by regional standards, its prospects for success against a western opponent would depend ultimately on how successful Baghdad was in overcoming chronic weaknesses in military leadership, reconnaissance and intelligence, morale, readiness, logistics, and training."

Wilson added "Iraq, could field ICBMs with WMD, presenting a new strategic threat that we've not faced before."

In past years, US officials have stated that Iraq will "never" see the sanctions imposed on it lifted.

Previous Stories:
  US approves re-financing the Iraqi National Congress   (2/1/2002)
  US Defense Intelligence Agency Statement on Global Threats and Challenges   (1/30/2002)
  US organizations call for lifting Iraqi embargo   (1/29/2002)
  Russia reiterates support for Iraq   (1/26/2002)
  Lieberman urges striking Iraq   (11/28/2001)
  British papers highlight common Arab feelings of anger, lack of effectiveness   (10/7/2000)
  Elements of the solution to the Iraqi crisis   (2/20/1998)
  The failure of US foreign policy in Iraq   (2/10/1998)
  The fundamental problems facing the Arab states   (1/31/1998)

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